Good morning bloggers,
Major Hurricane Delta tops the weather story today. And, Kansas City will likely stay dry for another 15 days at least. The new LRC is setting up, and this is just the beginning of the pattern. If you were following closely, then you would know that last year's cycle was 59-days long, so this beginning period of being dry does not mean the entire weather pattern will be a dry one. We will make some forecast decisions for the winter and this next year in a few weeks. We just know that this years pattern has started extremely dry. The new LRC is just evolving, and there will be a new cycle length setting up as well. This developmental phase of the pattern is just that, it is developing. Let's take a look.
Major Hurricane Delta still had 120 mph sustained winds near the center early this morning. This is a Category 3 hurricane. The water temperatures near the coast have dropped to below 80 degrees and this should create the conditions favorable for weakening before this storm makes landfall.
Hurricane Delta will likely make landfall around 8 PM this evening. This map, above, shows the eye of the hurricane about to make landfall at 7 PM. We have shared with you, in this past year, many examples of how the LRC helps us predict these strong storm systems. If you remember, the major severe weather outbreak on Easter Sunday that hit the south was predicted on the podcast WeatherBrains with James Spann 45 days before it happened. And, other tropical storms and hurricanes were big LRC successes earlier in the season. Take a look at this prediction made on April 26th, or almost a half year ago:
This prediction of a CAT 2 Hurricane made almost six months ago, was almost spot on. Another LRC prediction made in April was for Florida to get missed by any landfalling named storms this season, and Florida was missed.
The Overall Weather Pattern:
A very strong jet stream is developing over the Pacific Ocean, and this energy will dive across the Pacific Northwest this weekend. With the new pattern setting up, it will be interesting to see what happens in these next important 15 days of the weather pattern. Here what happens to this energy:
This next map, above, shows the huge storm forming over Canada near Hudson Bay. This is not a good development for any rain chances in KC. It will likely drive a cold front through us later next week, as this map is valid next Thursday. And, then look at what happens next, below:
The pattern begins shifting a bit in around 16 days, as shown on the October 25th map above. There is still no chance of rain in KC yet, so we will monitor these developments closely. Take a look at the predicted rainfall for the next ten days:
There is no rain forecast for the next ten days from most of California to most of Kansas and Missouri. That little bit is only 0.01" which means really there is no significant precipitation in the forecast for these next 10 days.
Expect a high of near 85 degrees the next three days with sunshine. I am going to take the dogs for a walk. I have had another great "staycation", and I am back to work Sunday. These "staycations" are hard, but I am saving a lot of money, as I usually would be taking a trip to Vegas, to California, etc. and I just didn't feel safe doing so with everything going on. Now, I have had a tremendous time with my dogs, with many walks and dog park visits while getting a lot of rest. I hope everyone is doing well. We will keep you updated on these changes.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great weekend, and GO CHIEFS! It's Raider Weekend and the weather looks nice out at Arrowhead.
Gary
