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Weather Blog: Severe Thunderstorm Watch, risk of hail north of KC

Posted at 9:14 AM, May 24, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-24 15:03:04-04

Good morning bloggers,

Thunderstorms tracked across far northern Missouri this morning. The rest of us are having a warm and muggy Sunday with the chance of rain being rather low. Let's take a look at the set up.

The chance of thunderstorms will be quite low today south of KC. There is a 60% chance of thunderstorms forming this afternoon north of KC, and a 30% chance this evening. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms mainly north and west of KC as you can see on this map above. This map shows the chance of thunderstorms at 8 PM. So,, this means that most areas will be dry today south and east of downtown.

This next forecast shows the latest data for early on Memorial Day morning:

There is a lot of moisture available for thunderstorms. We just need something to trigger the moisture and allow it to form into cumulonimbus clouds. This is just not happening in our area.

The better chance of thunderstorms will arrive Monday night as you can see below:

Parts of the plains, near Wichita, Des Moines, and Omaha have had 6" of rain in the past week. Kansas City, on the other hand has been getting much less. This trend is likely going to continue, but I do expect 1" to 3" of rain this week.

This graphic above shows just one computer model that has a forecast of 1/2" of rain Monday night. Others have more or less than this amount.

Have a great Sunday. We will keep you updated.

Gary