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Weather Blog: Erratic Eta and a big weather change next week

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Posted at 10:27 AM, Nov 03, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-03 11:55:04-05

Happy Election Day bloggers,

The weather here and across the USA will be about as nice as it can get in early November. We will see highs well into the 70s with 100% sunshine in our region. It will be a bit breezy, but still quite nice. We will go into our weather changes below the tropical update.

TROPICAL UPDATE:

Now, to something not so nice. Hurricane Eta last night almost became the first Atlantic Basin, November, category 5 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Right now it is a strong category 4 as it crawls towards Nicaragua and Honduras.

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Eta will go inland today and weaken to a depression tomorrow. Now, most years that would be the end to the story of a tropical system. But, this is 2020 and this is a record hurricane season.

There is considerable data showing Eta re-emerging to the Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. After that, it has potential to do all kinds of weird things, including affecting the Gulf coast in 10-14 days as a hurricane!
Now, if it sits over Central America too long and completely loses all of its tropical features, then it may have a new name if something forms near by.

The video below shows one data run/possible solution of the tropical system during the next 2 weeks. It shows only the wind fields with no audio. Warning, you may need to take a Dramamine!

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Here is a satellite picture from 10 AM on Election Day. There are practically no clouds in the entire USA, except for New England and the Pacific Northwest. There are some clouds in Utah and Arizona. There is rain in the Pacific Northwest and some lake effect snow in New England, but 99% of the country is dry.

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It is not just sunny almost every where, but temperatures are well above average for most locations except New England. We will see highs in KC get close to 80!

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The reason for the dry and warmer than average pattern is that the jet stream is retreated and there is a large ridge in the middle of the USA. This is a map of the upper level flow for Friday. The ridge will actually get a bit stronger as a trough (storm system) dives into the western USA.

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This means much warmer than average air will cover much of the USA through Sunday. Highs around here will be well into the 70s through Sunday. We may reach 80 on one of the days. Cold air is rebuilding in Canada and this will surge south next week, mostly west of the Mississippi river. So, yes, we will be turning colder next week.

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Here is the upper level flow for Monday. The big ridge has shifted to the east coast and become stronger as an upper level high forms near New York City. A big and deep trough has formed over the western USA.

This means the warm November air is shifting east and we are on the western edge of the warmth on Sunday. Colder air is pouring south across the Rockies and western Plains. The storm system at the south end of the trough, around Utah, will swing east and then northeast into the Plains along the leading edge of the cold air early next week.

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This will create a variety of precipitation across the middle of the USA including rain, thunderstorms, ice and snow. This variety of precipitation will separate highs from the 70s to 10s/20s.

This is a week away and there are still many questions as to how this will set up and evolve.

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Bottom line...The weather will be unseasonably nice through the weekend. There will be a few windy days as well. The leaves are now falling from the trees and this means we transition from enjoying the fall colors to not enjoying cleaning the leaves if you have a yard.

If you have to clean leaves, today through Friday will be pretty good. Thursday and Friday will be ideal with not much wind. This weekend, ahead of the change, it will be rather windy.

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Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.