Weather Blog: Fourth of July Downpours

Posted at 8:52 AM, Jul 04, 2020
and last updated 2020-07-04 09:52:57-04

Happy 4th of July bloggers,

We are going to be tracking scattered showers and thunderstorms today as a disturbance rotates in from the east.

We have been in a pattern in which disturbances have been meandering across the Plains. Today they are organizing a bit into one upper level low about 50-100 miles south of KC on the state line of Kansas and Missouri. This puts us in easterly flow aloft. And so, this is why the scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving in from the east.


This is how the rainfall laid out on Friday as a disturbance tracked southeast across southwest Johnson county. There was 1"-2" of rain in most of Olathe, but 5 miles northeast there was less than .25". There were a few drops by the time you reached Prairie Village. I show this because this is how the rainfall will be today. Some may see 1"-3" of rain, others a few hundredths and a few none at all. The locations will be different than Friday, but similar rainfall pattern. Also, today may see a bit more coverage than Friday.


This a total rainfall from about 5 to 830 AM Saturday. 1" to 3.50" of rain occurred from around Carrollton, MO to Glasgow, MO. This prompted the issuance of a Flash Flood Warning as rainfall rates can be 1" to 2" per hour. Again, some may see flash flooding, others may not see a drop.

If you see flowing water, "Turn Around Don't Drown."


4TH OF JULY 11 AM: You can see the showers and thunderstorms in the green and yellow. This data looks more widespread, but in the shaded areas this where the scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around 11 AM. The yellow is a bit higher coverage.


4TH OF JULY 3 PM: The area is shifting to the west slowly. Highs will be in the 80s, but if you get a downpour, the temperature will drop to the 70s. If there is enough sun after the rain, your temperature may rebound to the 80s.


4TH OF JULY 7 PM: You can see the coverage has decreased considerably as the disturbance shifts south.


4TH OF JULY 10 PM: You can see by fireworks time we have just clouds and no rain. Basically, between 5 PM and 10 PM we will see a decrease in the coverage of rain.


If you are out and about today, keep an eye to the sky. These showers and thunderstorms can pop up fast and exit fast. Being on a lake when one of these showers and thunderstorms arrive is not wise. You can not only get torrential rain, but frequent lightning and 25-50 mph wind gusts. Stay weather aware.

Outside of the showers and thunderstorms the wind will be light all weekend from mostly the east, northeast and southeast.

SUNDAY: The scattered showers and thunderstorms will return, but the coverage will be lower. There may be a few around during the morning as well. Highs will be around 90 after lows around 70.


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: These will be mostly hot and dry days with highs around 90 and lows 70-75. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, but the chance is less than 10% each day. Monday the chance may be a bit higher. We will look at the week ahead in tomorrow's blog.

Have a happy and safe 4th of July. Stay healthy and please DON'T drink/text and drive.