Weather Blog - From 73° Today To A Thanksgiving Week Storm

Arctic Air Way North
Posted at 7:37 AM, Nov 16, 2021
and last updated 2021-11-16 14:31:53-05

Good morning bloggers,

The LRC continues to set up above us. The LRC describes the organization to what my peers believe is just chaos up there. It is far from chaos. The pattern we are about to experience for the next ten months is setting up right now, and as it evolves we are learning what it will mean for this winter. We are preparing our winter weather special that will be on in a couple of weeks. Right now we are wondering where the cold air is? Today will be 73°, and the cold air is stuck up north:

Arctic Air Way North

This map above shows the Arctic air is forecast to be growing colder, but stuck way up near the North Pole and Alaska. This is a forecast for November 30th. This may be very wrong, however. There is a block forming:

Thanksgiving Day Upper Level Forecast

There is a lot to analyze and track on this forecast for Thanksgiving Day. This map shows the flow around 18,000 feet above us. This is called the 500 mb level, where "mb" stands for millibar. A millibar is a measure of atmospheric pressure. 500 mb is around half way up through the atmosphere in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight, and thus 0 mb, while near the surface the average pressure is 1013.25 mb, or 29.92" (inches of mercury, another pressure measurement). We like to look at the 500 mb level as it is the best level to find storm systems and track them where they don't get influenced by surface friction.

We are seeing a big, well, really large block near Greenland. This is a 222 hour forecast, so it is still suspect until we get to 222 hours from now and see if it actually does form. This is a very important feature to monitor as a block this strong will likely have major impacts on the jet stream. It will likely influence the flow over the United States. This map shows a storm forming, at this 500 mb level, over the southwestern United States. This will likely be much more organized if that block forms. The flow will likely get "blocked up", and these models do not do well, in fact they are at their worst and mostly unreliable to use for forecasting the weather IF you literally forecast what they show. This model has it dry in Kansas City Thanksgiving week. If this block does form, then I think the chance of a much stronger storm approaching KC will happen. But, I am not confident in that block forming as it is shown. Let's see if this trend continues. If it does, then the models will likely begin forecasting a major winter storm.

Precipitation Forecast Next 15-days:

Precipitation Forecast Next 15-Days

This precipitation forecast shows it wet through the southeastern USA and very wet from northern California to Alaska. Kansas City is on the edge of completely dry. Again, this is from a map that did not form the Thanksgiving storm in our area. I have a feeling a storm will form close to Thanksgiving Day. So, this forecast would change and shift around when the data gradually shifts into a stronger storm system

  • Today's weather: GREAT! Let's enjoy this nice day with temperatures rising into the 70s on south winds at 20 mph. The wind will be a bit gusty. High: 73°
  • Wednesday: Early morning clouds with some predawn showers possible. It will be around 20 to 25 degrees colder. High: 51° (but it will be near 60 degrees around midnight).

Sunny & Rainbow The Weather Dogs posed for this incredible picture last night at sunset:

Sunset Dogs

Red sky at night, Sailors Delight. It will be a great day!

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog and sharing in this weather experience. We will go in-depth with KC's Most Accurate forecast on KSHB-41 News tonight.