Weather Blog: Frost advisory, a look into our next storm system

Frost advisory
Posted at 7:41 AM, Apr 25, 2022
and last updated 2022-04-25 09:24:16-04

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,

Saturday Night Shelf Cloud

Thank you for the birthday wishes and wonderful comments over the weekend. It's hard to believe I am 60 years old and it was a special weekend of surprises, presents and celebrating with friends! On Saturday evening I was at a wedding and then raced up to get this photo opportunity with Rainbow and Sunny The Weather Dogs. These thunderstorms weakened as they moved into Kansas City. You can see a shelf cloud behind the dogs with a lightning flash caught on the picture over their heads. A few spots had more than an inch of rain. More rain is in the forecast this week.

Another cold surge has arrived and a frost advisory and freeze warning have been issued for our region. The Kansas City metro area is under the frost advisory for later tonight when temperatures drop into the lower or middle 30s.

Let's begin, however, with the LRC. We have another possible freeze in our area. Another blizzard just blasted North Dakota and Montana. There is a storm system due at the end of the week. All of these systems are cycling through and on schedule. Here is another one in the category of "you can't make this up."

500 mb Flow April 23, 2022
LRC Cycle 1 October 13

Weather 20/20 predicted this past weekend's storm system to arrive this past few days, and it was featured in our weather special on KSHB 41 in March. The top map shows the flow aloft around 18,000 feet up on April 23, 2022, and the second map shows the flow on Oct. 13, 2021, or 192 days earlier. 192 days divided by three equals 64. And, as many of you know, we have been showcasing the close to 64-day cycle since it developed in October and November. When this system cycled through in October, and then returned in December, and again in February, we predicted it would cycle back through close to April 20 to 24. And, then it did! The weather pattern is spot on perfectly cycling across all of the Northern Hemisphere.

So, what is next? In the first LRC cycle in October, a series of storm systems continued to affect our region and this late-week setup is right on schedule. There are other influences affecting the pattern as well. Here is one model's surface forecast for Friday:

A strong stern later this week

Another strong surface low is forecast to form over the Colorado-Kansas border by Friday. This will draw in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with chances of thunderstorms arriving mid to late this week. The storm is forecast to wind up into another mature, occluded, storm system by Saturday as you can see below.

Surface Forecast Saturday Evening

Another blizzard is possible over the northern and central plains. Kansas City will eventually get south of the surface storm and this will bring west winds Saturday with a severe weather risk shifting into Eastern Missouri. There is a chance we will have a severe risk Friday night, and there are chances of thunderstorms as this system develops.

Rainfall Forecast Next 6 days

This rainfall forecast shows around 1 inch of rain in our area later this week. We will discuss this more in-depth on our weather forecasts today and tonight on KSHB 41.

Conditions for frost tonight

A high-pressure ridge is going to be over Western Missouri by morning and this will help create light winds and a clear sky. Conditions are favorable for a frost and freeze in our region.

Frost advisory

I did get a nice birthday present, this small olive tree. I put it outside yesterday, and I will take it in tonight. It is a tree that, if I transplant it, which may be difficult for me to do, will be able to thrive on our outside deck. It is supposed to get full sunshine as much as possible. I will see if I have a green thumb.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing this weather experience. Have a great start to the week.