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Weather Blog | Great weather, 1 main chance of thunderstorms

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Posted at 1:25 PM, Jun 05, 2024

Good Wednesday, bloggers —

We have been tracking numerous rounds of rain and thunderstorms for the last four to six weeks.

We have been impacted by almost all of them. However, when it comes to the amount of rainfall, we seem to be in a hole.

Here are the radar estimates of the rainfall the last 24 hours. There was a pocket of trace-0.25" from Emporia to Moberly, centered on the south part of KC.

1"-2" of rain occurred all around this area.

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Now, let's look at the last seven days. The area extends from KC to Kirksville, where amounts were a trace to 0.50".

2"-5" of rain occurred all around the area.

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How about the last 14 days? The same zone of low rainfall is still there.

We averaged 2.65" of rain this period, and KC to Kirksville received a trace to 1".

2"-5" occurred all around the zone.

4"-9" of rain has fallen from southeast Kansas to southern Missouri.

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In the last 30 days, you can see a zone from Wichita to Chicago, where 2"-3" of rain has fallen.

7"-10" of rain has occurred around the zone.

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There is no real great explanation for this as the pattern has been active. We have one main chance to fill the gap a bit.

Hopefully it occurs, as it is the one main rain chance for the next seven days.

Now, if we keep getting missed by the rain, it might as well be nice out.

Today through Friday will be very nice with low humidity.

TODAY:
We will see highs in the 80s with low humidity with a west-southwest breeze at 10-15 mph. A weak cold front will move by this evening.

It may bring a shower or thunderstorm to northern Missouri, but all of the moisture was taken by the front on Tuesday.

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THURSDAY:
This may be the best day of the week. We will see abundant sunshine, low humidity and a northwest breeze at 10-20 mph. Highs will be in the 70s.

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FRIDAY:
This will also be a nice day with highs in the 70s to near 80°. The wind will become south-southeast at 5-15 mph.

You will notice an increase in the humidity as a front sets up at the surface to our west. We will be in northwest flow at the upper levels.

A disturbance in the flow will interact with the front and increase Gulf moisture to produce a cluster of thunderstorms in Nebraska. This cluster will head southeast into eastern Kansas and western Missouri later Friday night into Saturday.

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FRIDAY AT 10 PM:
You can see the thunderstorms in Nebraska.

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FRIDAY NIGHT 10 PM-5 AM:
This is when the thunderstorms will be moving through, give or take 2-3 hours. If there is any severe weather, it would be hail and gusty winds.

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SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
After the thunderstorms exit Saturday morning, we will see improving weather as a cold front slips south. Any thunderstorms Saturday night-Sunday will occur south of here.

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Highs over the weekend will be mostly in the 70s with lows around 60°. Sunday is looking like a nice day.

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RAINFALL FORECAST:
You can see we are on the north edge of decent rain. Yes, some locations will get missed again.

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When you zoom in, you can see the 2"-4" band is just 80 miles wide. On this data, 2"-4" of rain is possible in part of the drier areas.

But rainfall under .50" is not that far away. This band could still shift north or south by 50-100 miles.

For those who want rain, let's hope for a north shift. A south shift means not much rain the next seven days and a ton of rain from southeast Kansas to southern Missouri, where they have been getting heavy rainfall.

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Have a great rest of your week.

Stay healthy.