Weather Blog | Heating up, then thunderstorms, some may be severe

Posted at 6:40 AM, Jun 11, 2024

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are at day one of a three-day warming trend. This first day of the warming trend has cirrus clouds moving by which made for a beautiful sunrise. The warming trend ends Thursday as a cold front slips into the region. This front will generate thunderstorms, some may be severe, north of I-70 Thursday evening.

Let's go through all of these changes.

We will be 5 degrees warmer than Monday along with a bit more humidity. The high will be around 85° with a south-southwest breeze at 5-15 mph. We will see lots of high clouds as we are in between storm systems in the upper Midwest and Texas.


We will make a run at 90° along with more humidity as a south-southwest breeze increases to 10-20 mph. If we do not reach 90° Wednesday for the first time since Oct. 2, we will on Thursday. Also, we are tracking a cold front that will be entering Nebraska Wednesday.


The cold front will be on our doorstep and out ahead of it we will see extreme humidity with dewpoints in the 70s. Highs will climb to 90°-95° which will take our heat index over 100°. The front will have no problem generating thunderstorms with the amount of heat and humidity available.


Since there is so much heat and humidity, some of the thunderstorms may be severe. We are in a level 2 of 5 risk for Thursday evening and night. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. It will not become a major outbreak of severe weather as the flow aloft is not that strong.


Thunderstorms that form in northern Missouri Thursday early evening will track south and affect the I-70 corridor Thursday night into Friday morning. You can see below that not all locations will see thunderstorms as it will be a broken line that forms on the cold front.


The front will be lingering in the area, so scattered thunderstorms will be possible just about anytime during the day. Some may be severe if they linger. Highs will be in the 80s with the humidity still rather high. Locations north of the frontal zone will get a brief reprieve from the high humidity. I doubt the humidity relief reaches KC, but there is a slight chance.


The front will washout Saturday, but we could still see a few thunderstorms. Our attention will turn to the west as a storm system tracks out of the Rockies, generating a bigger line of thunderstorms from eastern Nebraska to southwest Kansas.


There are many sets of model data that take the line of thunderstorms east towards I-35 and have it mostly fall apart. This would mean our area would see a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday. We will have to watch this as we will have plenty of humidity and warmth to work with, so we could see more thunderstorms Sunday morning than what is being depicted below.


The storm system and chance of thunderstorms will be gone as the high humidity and heat stay. We will not see a cold front passage after the weekend storm, so it will be a hot and humid start to next week.


The most widespread heavy rain will occur mostly north of I-80 and way south around Louisiana. The 10"-20" rainfall potential in Louisiana is tied to a potential tropical system. If one forms it will be weak. If one does not form the area of low pressure will be strong enough to bring very heavy rain.

There are a few models that take that moisture and system north into Missouri next week. We will have more on that in the coming days.


When we zoom in on the rainfall forecast you can see our area has rainfall amounts ranging from .10" or less to 2"-4". This is a result of the scattered strong and very heavy thunderstorm event that is looking more likely Thursday night into the weekend.


Are you heading to the "K" for the Yankees vs. Royals series? It has a 1970s, early 1980s feel. The good news about baseball is if you lose there is another game the next day, sometimes two days. In this case it is the next day.

We do not see any rain for the rest of the series. The game on Thursday is a 1:10 p.m. which is good and bad. It's good because the game will be over before any thunderstorms arrive Thursday night. It's bad because it is going to be sweltering out there Thursday afternoon as highs climb to the 90s with very high humidity. A south breeze at 15-25 mph will help some. But, that wind direction with all the heat and humidity will not make the pitchers happy as the ball will be carrying due to the heat and humidity and the ball will get a push to I-70 as the wind blows out to center and left field.

If the Royals can win two of the next three against the Yankees I will be happy.


Have a great rest of your week.
Stay healthy.