Weather Blog | Hello March! Unseasonable warmth, then changes

Posted at 7:32 AM, Mar 01, 2024
and last updated 2024-03-01 09:53:18-05

Good March 1 bloggers,

March is going to start very much like the entire month of February, that is unseasonably warm and dry.

It is not just March 1, but February statistics day.

Let's look at February and also at the winter and fall since the new pattern developed in early October. Then we will look ahead.



We had the warmest highs on average, the 16th warmest lows, which made this the third warmest February highs plus lows in history.

How long is "in history" for Kansas City? Records have been kept since 1889.

We had two one to two day blasts of Arctic air.

The low was six degrees on the 17th, which was the coldest temperature of the month.

The low was 12 degrees on the 28th — the second coldest temperature of the month. Seventy-seven was the warmest and a record on the 26th.



We had two days of precipitation totaling 0.15 inches.

This was the fifth driest on record and with only 1.3 inches of snow, it was the 26th least snowy.

That means 0.02 inches of the precipitation this month was rain.



Overall, we are running 0.83 inches above average as October, December and January saw well above average precipitation.

But, these are on average the driest months of the year.

January averages 1.16 inches of rain/melted snow which is the driest month of the year on average.

Cold air does not hold as much water, so this is why that happens. So, my point is running above average on precipitation during the driest months of the year is still not a ton of rain.

As we head into the growing season more and more rain is needed with each passing week.

March averages 2.36 inches the fifth driest month on average.



After seeing 1.3 inches of snow in February, our season total is up to 13.2 inches. 8.7 inches of that occurred in January which is the only month that acted like winter.

We likely have one to two more chances of snow this season.



These are the main winter months and are called "meteorological winter."

I am not a big fan of this as I am a fan of actual "astronomical winter."

Meteorological winter is used to make stats for winter even — Dec. 1 to Feb. 28 (29th).

This meteorological winter was warm, cold, warm for Kansas City.

December was the 7th warmest in history, followed by the 24th coldest January, which was followed by the third warmest February.


MARCH 1-10:

Now let's look ahead to the first 10 days of March. We are tracking two chances of rain.

The chance last night came through with sprinkles. If your car was parked outside all night, you will likely notice drops of dirt on the car from the sprinkles.

The water evaporated leaving the dirt.


Highs will reach the 50s as the clouds clear. The system from last night will be in the eastern USA as 70s and 80s build across the Plains.



It will be mostly sunny, windy and dry with highs in the 70s Saturday and near 80 degrees Sunday.

The wind will be south-southwest at 15-30 mph Saturday and 20-40 mph Sunday.

The fire danger will be high, but higher humidity will help.

If you are headed to the Sporting KC home opener Saturday evening, it will be dry and breezy with temperatures in the 60s. In other words, great weather.

If the low Sunday is 58 degrees or higher we will tie/break a record warm low.

If the high reaches 81 degrees or higher Sunday we will tie/break a record warm high.


A front will be approaching Sunday. This sets up our first of two rain chances next week.



The front will be moving through slowly Monday.

So, highs may reach the 70s again with lows near 55-60 degrees.

The record warm low is 59 degrees, but the low for the day may be set at 11:59 p.m. after the front moves through.

The record high is 80 degrees. That is not out of the question.


So, with a slower front, you would think there is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

But, it looks like rain and thunderstorms will form just east of our area. There is a 30% chance it forms farther west.



These will be dry and cooler days with highs mostly in the 50s and lows in the 30s.



This is most likely our next best chance of rain as we track a bigger storm system.

If it tracks south, we could see the rain end as wet snow. This would be one of the chances we mentioned above.


Have a great weekend.
Stay healthy.