Weather Blog: Here we go again

Winter Storm On Thursday Morning?
Posted at 7:09 AM, Feb 14, 2022
and last updated 2022-02-14 08:43:16-05

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,

We have been through this type of weather forecast a few times this winter. This is why I titled the blog, "Here We Go Again."

The data has trended closer to a major winter storm in our area, but our region is on the edge once again. The models range from not even one snowflake to over a foot of snow near Kansas City. We will be able to narrow into the likely solution within the next two days. This is the part of the LRC, the cycling weather pattern, that has produced major storm systems, including our wettest storm of the season in October. It is right on schedule!

What we know:

  • The energy that we are tracking is just coming into the west coast of the United States today. How it digs south and rounds the base of the trough will decide whether we get hit with huge impacts, or just get a glancing blow and another dry cold blast.
  • There will be a big warm-up ahead of this storm with near 50 degrees today (Monday), into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, then the cold blast Wednesday night with the chance of rain changing to snow.

What we don't know yet:

  • The track and strength of this storm as it kicks out into the plains is highly in question.
  • The models that produce snow in Kansas City hold the storm together just six hours longer than the models that keep us dry.
  • It will be a very wet storm, but will it miss Kansas City again? Will the rain and snow stay just southeast of our region?

South winds will increase tonight and Tuesday with wind gusts to 40 miles per hour or stronger likely tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon:

Warming up Tuesday

Temperatures will likely warm into the 60s Tuesday, and then a strong cold front will develop and be on our doorstep Wednesday afternoon:

The set up

I could go deep into why or why not this storm will form as shown below, but I will save this discussion for tomorrow's blog. This solution below is the snowy solution from the American model. The brighter pink and purple colors show the very heavy snow. We must also keep in mind the other solutions that keep that area of snow down near Joplin, Missouri.

Winter Storm On Thursday Morning?

Again, this solution looks dreamy for those of you who love snow. I could show you many other models that don't even have one raindrop or snowflake. Let's give this another 24 hours to see how the models trend. We will go more in-depth on KSHB 41 News today and tonight.

Happy Valentine's Day! It will warm up to near 50 degrees this afternoon.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing this weather experience.