Weather Blog - High Wind Warning & Snow Forecast

Forecast For Friday Morning
Posted at 7:01 AM, Jan 14, 2021
and last updated 2021-01-14 08:18:58-05

Good morning bloggers,

  • High Wind Warning Through Friday
  • Snow Is Possible On Friday

A High Wind Warning is in effect from now through Friday for 50 mph winds and stronger gusts possible. And, snow is in the Friday forecast as a disturbance rotates around a strong and developing storm. The storm is developing east of KC, so there will be a western edge to this snowfall. Let's take a look.

Blizzard Warnings are in effect for far northwest Missouri:

Warnings & Advisories
Winter Weather Advisories

A blizzard warning is rarely issued in our region. The National Weather Service has issued a blizzard warning for northwestern Missouri as a result of the possibility of high winds and snow reducing visibilities to near 0 with up to 3" of snow, blowing and drifting of that snow, and those winds gusting to over 50 mph.

Powercast (Forecast For Friday Morning)

Forecast For Friday Morning

A strong surface low will be developing near the Missouri/Iowa border on Friday and then quickly moving east Friday night. A disturbance will be rotating around the storm system and snow is likely going to spread over our region with the heaviest east of a Hiawatha, KS to Topeka, KS line. The black lines are isobars, which are lines of equal pressure. In other words, each line has the same pressure, but the pressure drops with each line getting closer to that surface low. The closer the lines are together, the stronger the wind will be, and these isobars are packed closely together which will lead to the 50 mph or stronger wind gusts. Combine this with some snow, then we may get those blizzard conditions.

In Kansas City, this snow will likely arrive between 5 and 8 AM tomorrow with temperature dropping into the 20s. We will likely also see reduced visibility with snow and winds combing to produce some slick spots beginning during the morning rush hour on Friday.

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall Prediction By One Model

We are forecasting a dusting to possibly up to 2" in the KC metro area. As usually happens in our area, we are near the southwestern edge. If this is a bit farther southwest, then the amounts may be a bit more, but if it is just a blip farther north and east we will only get around a dusting.

Highs Friday

Temperatures will be in the 20s to near 30 degrees on Friday with wind chills near 10 degrees. Even colder air is likely within the next ten days or so.

The Weather Pattern:

Arctic Oscillation

The Arctic Oscillation has been negative since early December, and we are still waiting for our first true Arctic Blast. The coldest temperature so far this season has been 6 degrees a few weeks ago. We will likely make a run at 0 degrees, or below zero if snow is on the ground, and this is possible in the next two weeks.

500 mb flow valid January 22

On this map above, you can see a big ridge forming over Alaska around 8 days from now, and there is an upper high over northeast Canada. The strength of these features are still in question. If they are a bit stronger, then snow and brutal cold will be in our forecast around next weekend or shortly there after. This has been in our LRC forecast since we issued the winter forecast in early December. There is still some question as to the strength of these features, and I will explain more next week if this continues to trend in this direction.

High Temperature Forecast A Week From Sunday

The coldest air will finally blast south into the United States later next week if these trends continue. Some models have 10" of snow or so in KC, but again it depends on if these features become strong enough.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Cloudy, Windy, & Colder with a brief shower possible. The winds will likely gust to 50 mph or stronger in a few spots and a HIGH WIND WARNING is in effect. Temperatures will be in the 40s dropping into the 30s later in the day.
  • Tonight: HIGH WIND WARNING with an increasing chance of snow by morning. Low: 29°
  • Friday: Snow likely during the morning, with snow showers during the afternoon. Accumulations of a dusting to 2" likely with a bit more over northern Missouri. A BLIZZARD WARNING is in effect for areas around Maryville, MO and northwestern Missouri. Temperatures in the 20s most of the day. Some drifting and blowing of this snow is likely.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog! We will be monitoring these weather developments closely. Have a great Thursday.