Good Monday bloggers,
We are having some great weather. We are tracking a cold front and changes for Thanksgiving week.
We have seen highs today in the 60s with colder air and warmer air not that far away.
It was in the 30s across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this afternoon, just 33 degrees in Chicago. It was around 80 degrees from central Kansas to west Texas. 83 degrees in Amarillo, Texas.
Our air will be coming from the southwest as the front to our northeast becomes a warm front.
So, Tuesday we will see highs in the low 70s as a new cold front approaches from the northwest. It is a seasonal for Nov. cold front.
TUESDAY 3 PM:
We will see highs in the low 70s with a south-southwest breeze at 10-25 mph. There will be areas of high clouds that the sun will shine through.
TUESDAY NIGHT (MIDNIGHT):
The cold front from the northwest will be moving through. Temperatures will be in the 40s northwest of the front to 55 degrees-60 degrees ahead of the front. This will make our high Wednesday at midnight with temperatures in KC mostly in the 50s, possibly 60 degrees.
A few rain showers are possible.
WEDNESDAY (7 AM):
The front will be located near I-44 as it tracks southeast. We will be cloudy and cooler with a chance of some drizzle or a shower. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.
It will be mostly cloudy, cool and dry with temperatures in between 45 and 50. The wind will be northwest at 10-20 mph.
Let's peek into Thanksgiving week.
This is the upper level flow for Thanksgiving day. We have the map pointed at the North Atlantic Ocean. Why? Well there is a significant block forming in the upper level flow, marked by all of the upper level lows and highs. There are 3 reasons why this is important for our weather.
1. This was present for much of October as the new weather pattern (LRC) was forming. So, we are confident this is part of our new pattern. October was a stormy month.
2. This block may send colder air our way now that we are getting close to winter.
3. This block allows storm systems coming in from the west to slow down, become stronger and pick up more Gulf of Mexico moisture. We saw this in Oct.
We do not know enough about the LRC yet to get detailed about the forecast 10 days from now, but, as said above, we do know enough that this is part of the new pattern.
We also know that the standard long range American and Euro models will have issues handling how the storm systems interact with the block.
The bottom line...We have a chance for a wet storm or two Thanksgiving week into the following week. Will they contain winter weather for our area? There is chance.
We will be watching it closely.
Have a great week.