Weather Blog - Huge Warm Up & Another Winter Storm Within The Next Eight Days

The Set-Up For Warming
Posted at 7:06 AM, Feb 18, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-18 08:47:28-05

Good morning bloggers,

The weather is calming down a bit. I can see the sun this morning as we just had a sunrise without any clouds for the first time in a while. The sun will be out in full force this for a while, but there are some challenges in our forecast related to all of the snow cover that expands from the Gulf of Mexico coast all the way up to the North Pole. Let's begin with a look at what just happened after the Ground Hog saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter on February 2nd.

We just experienced the coldest Valentine's Day and the longest stretch of days at 15° or lower of ten days in a row:

Frigid February

We had a total of only 5" of snow this month despite 13 days with snowflakes coming down. Here are the days with snowflakes:

Snow Days

There are huge changes going on in the weather pattern. It is still cycling perfectly as described by the LRC, and the next chance of a significant storm in our area will cycle through near the end of next week, around a week from today or Friday. We will discuss that next storm in just a second, but let's first concentrate on the warming trend that will arrive big time early next week.

There has been a huge change in what is going on near the North Pole. The block that caused our frigid February broke down earlier in the week, and we now have a big positive change in the AO index:

Arctic Oscillation

When the AO dips deep negative, like it did a few days ago, it indicates that there will be a good chance of blocking over Greenland. northern Canada, and Alaska. A block formed in late January, and we issued that Arctic Blast Watch way before the Arctic blast arrived. A second stronger block formed around February 5th, and this really created the conditions for the Arctic Blast to have more surges. The AO is just an influence on the overall pattern. The LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle. And, we have cracked the code predicting the weather from days to months out. Now that the Arctic Oscillation has loosened it's grip on the pattern, we will go back to experiencing the winter we had been experiencing before this past two week stretch. This doesn't mean that spring is heading our way early, however. There are parts of this pattern that have produced winter storms without the Arctic blasts. One of those storm systems is due in near the end of next week. Also due in is a big warm up!

By later tomorrow a weak front will be trying to develop near KC. The south winds will begin warming us up:

Changes This Weekend

These south breezes will be tracking over a deep snow pack to our south. This may lead to cloud formation and I have concerns that clouds will develop and move back in tomorrow and Saturday. Look at the snow cover as of last night and early this morning:

Snow Cover

A storm will zip by Sunday with some snow north of Kansas City on Sunday and maybe a few rain or snow showers this far south. After Sunday's storm passes look what happens next:

The Set-Up For Warming

With the AO going positive, it opens the door for the jet stream to retreat north a bit. This allows for a strong storm to track across southern Canada. It is a strong low pressure area, and this provides the conditions for downslope warming, where the air blows in from the west and northwest across the higher terrain out over the western plains. This will provide the conditions for next weeks big warm up. A warming trend into the 50s and maybe even 60 degrees by Tuesday, which is in our 7-day forecast.

A Major Winter Storm In A Week?

Well, we haven't had a major winter storm in Kansas City this winter. But, they have been all around us. Our snowfall total is at just under 12" for the season. Take a look at the models for later next week:

Jan 25-26 Storm

I am rather confident that there will be an impacting storm later next week, but will Kansas City see these impacts? Why am I confident? Because the LRC provides us the data and knowledge of the cycling pattern to make these predictions far in advance. We had February 25th analyzed as one of our good chances for a winter storm in our area months ago. Take a look at this pattern from way back on November 25th:

November 25th 500 mb flow

This would mean nothing to meteorologists that do not understand that the pattern is cycling. But, to many of the bloggers that have been following the LRC for the past 20 years, this would be expected.

That map, showing the snowstorm in our area, is the American Model. Here is the European Model snowfall forecast for one week from today and tonight:

European Model Snowfall Totals Valid Next Friday

Now, remember, every storm has been diverted away from Kansas City this winter. This is how we are sitting at 11.8" of snow while Oklahoma City, Chicago, Des Moines, Texas, Louisiana, New York City, and many others are experiencing one of the snowiest winters ever. So, this storm may again get diverted north or south, but it fits that pattern to be near us.

This part of the pattern produce a similar storm in mid-January too, and that part of the pattern lines up with the storm in November, so confidence is fairly high that a winter storm will be showing up in our forecast for the end of next week. The warm up is also strongly showing up and on schedule.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Sunshine with a few clouds and flurries this morning. High: 22°
  • Tonight: Clear with patches of low clouds. Low:
  • Friday: Mostly sunny with a few patches of clouds. High: 29°
  • Saturday: There is a chance of a cloudy period, then the sun will shine through. High: 37°
  • Sunday: Partly cloudy with a brief period of showers possible. The chance of rain or snow is 30%. The better chance is up north. High: 36°
  • Early Next Week: A big warm up with 50s to near 60 likely.
  • Last Next Week: A winter storm is likely going to form in our area.

Well, there is a lot going on. We will discuss these developments and a lot more on 41 Action News today and tonight. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog. The warm up is just few days away. Have a great Thursday!