Weather Blog: Looking back at snowfall, searching ahead for warmer air

Posted at 12:46 PM, Nov 15, 2022
and last updated 2022-11-15 13:56:32-05

Good Tuesday bloggers,

Before we search for warmer air, lets recap the snow.

Our first accumulating snow of the season is under our belt. It was not enough to end the Snowflake contest as 1" needed to accumulate at KSHB 41. There were locations where there was enough for it to end.

Here is a classic example of why the Snowflake contest did not end. The snow mainly melted on contact with paved surfaces and melted some on grassy surfaces as temperatures all night were 32°-34°. This is what we meant by "every degree makes a difference." The Plaza had under 1/2" of snow as closer to downtown is was just warmer enough, due to the cement retaining warmth, that kept most of the snow melting.

This picture is from south OP, farther from downtown, where 1/2" accumulated on grassy surfaces.


Here is a map of radar estimated snow totals. Locations even farther from downtown that were in the heavier bands received 1"-2" of snow. There is a hole north of Harrisonville, Missouri. This is due to the radar being in Pleasant Hill, Missouri and the radar not being able to pick up the snowfall near the radar.


Now, when you look at radar estimated rain and melted snow you see there were widespread .10"-.20" amounts. If temperatures were 30°-32° we would have seen 1"-2" of snow on all surfaces and an easy end to the Snowflake contest. But, there was some rain to start and as shown above plenty of snow melted on contact.

Remember, the snow and rain amounts are radar estimated totals, so your rain gauge and ruler may have read different. This just gives the general idea of what occurred.


Now, to the search for warmer air.

There will be no warmer air to be found as we track a series of reinforcing cold fronts. The strongest front moves in Thursday and Thursday night. This means Friday is the coldest day of the workweek.


Wednesday will see highs in the 20s where clouds move in and low 30s where the sun shines. Basically, too cold everywhere.


Friday will likely see highs in the 20s! This is around 25 degrees below average.


Finally, a run at reaching an average high around 50°. Highs will be in the 40s. Right now, it looks slightly warmer Saturday as we have a "U" shape in the wind field. The base of the "U" is east of here, but this is a warming wind signature. A weak cold front will follow Saturday night, making for the slight cool down Sunday.


Hey! How about this? We will likely see a high of 50° Monday. This is average for next week as the average temperatures are dropping.

Highs may be mostly in the 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday. It will feel tropical!


A large storm system is possible at the end of next week. Right now, due to the warmer air it looks like mostly rain. However, the western side of the storm may be a snowstorm. This, of course, is not set yet. We will have more on this in the coming days.


Have a great rest of your week.
Stay warm, stay healthy.