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Weather Blog: Increasing Rain Chances, but Be Patient

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Posted at 12:32 PM, Jun 17, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-17 13:32:16-04

Good Wednesday bloggers,

We are in this hot and dry weather pattern for two more days. A weather pattern where we will be seeing a series of fronts and systems track across the Plains and Midwest begins Thursday night and will last about 7-10 days. This opens door to all of us to see some much needed rain. Now, that being said, some may have to wait longer than others to get that rain. Let's go through this.

WEDNESDAY: We will still be in the hot and dry weather pattern as the first sign of change is showing up in the northern Plains. The cold front that arrives later tomorrow night will be generating thunderstorms in the Dakotas this evening and tonight. We will have another dry day with highs in the low 90s and a south breeze at 10-25 mph.

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THURSDAY: The cold front will extend from northwest Wisconsin to southwest Kansas by afternoon. This will trigger a long line of thunderstorms to form tomorrow afternoon and evening. Once they form they will slowly head this way later tomorrow night. The flow aloft is weak, so it will take some time. We will once again have a mostly sunny, breezy, hot and humid day with highs in the low 90s and a south breeze at 15-25 mph.

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THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: This data has the line of thunderstorms breaking up as it approaches. It makes sense as the flow aloft is weak and the front is stalling, but if the thunderstorms hold together 1-2 hours longer then we will see more rain than is shown. A disturbance will be tracking out of the Rockies bringing a nice area of rain and thunderstorms to western Kansas.

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FRIDAY: This data has the morning complex of rain and thunderstorms moving east and falling apart as a new one forms in southeast Kansas. So, yes, this data has the most widespread rain missing our area through Friday.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY: Again this data has the most widespread rain occurring to our north and south with eastern Kansas and western Missouri in an area of isolated beneficial rain. Two things here. One, this may be wrong as models have a tough time with thunderstorms. And two...

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RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS: And two, if you miss the rain you need by Friday evening there will be many more rain and thunderstorm chances over the course of the next 7-10 days. Most locations by next Wednesday should see at least 1"-2" of rain. Some locations may see 3"-4" or more.

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Here is a wider view of the 7 day rainfall forecast. You can see the extent of significant rainfall across the middle of the USA. It would be shocking if we got missed by every chance. So, be patient if you get missed by Friday or even by Sunday.

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Also, it still looks like most of Father's day is dry with the best rain and thunderstorm chance occurring at night. This is not set yet, but the trend is good.

Have a great rest of your week. Stay cool and healthy.