Happy Memorial Day,
We have been in on odd weather pattern the last few days as an upper level low is forming in the southern Plains. In this process there have been a series of disturbances tracking south to north from Oklahoma and Texas to Nebraska and Iowa. So far the main energy has been across central and western sections of Kansas and Nebraska. We have seen scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some locations have seen 1"-2" of rain while other have not seen a drop. There were locations along I-70, west from around Manhattan, KS, on Sunday and Sunday night that received 3"-6" of rain! Also, this is not really a severe weather set up as there are no true fronts and we are in south flow aloft. Now, that being said, you can never rule out a thunderstorm becoming severe.
Out of nowhere, a Tornado Warning was issued around 230 PM for northwest Platte county. It appears there may have been a 1-2 minute tornado 6 miles south of the St. Joseph, MO airport. If a freaky tornado does occur with this pattern, that's what it would be, brief and small.
Whether your location has seen much rain or not, the sky has been fascinating to look at. This was from the afternoon looking west over Kaw point. You can see some heavy downpours in the western sky that were moving north.
What is next? It looks like it is our turn for widespread rain and thunderstorms later tonight. The next disturbance is bigger and was located over eastern Texas at 430 PM Memorial Day afternoon. It is moving north and will arrive in our region between midnight and 2 AM.
TUESDAY, 12-2 AM: The system will be tracking north up the state line and we will see areas of very heavy thunderstorms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the main round through the evening. Rainfall rates will be 1"-2" per hour, so flash flooding is a threat. If you see flowing water, "Turn Around Don't Drown." Winds may gust to 20-40 mph, as we are not expecting severe weather. If there is, it would come in the form of 60 mph winds.
THURSDAY 2-7 AM: The widespread heavy rain will be long gone by 7 AM as showers and thunderstorms remain. On this data they are mostly on the Kansas side. They could end up anywhere. Lows will be in the 60s.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: A few showers and thunderstorms will be around with highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The main upper low will track from north Texas to Arkansas. As this happens it will spread an area of scattered, possibly widespread rain and thunderstorms back in from the south. After this upper low exits, the weather looks great Friday-Sunday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
RAINFALL FORECAST TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Many locations will see 1"-2" of rain and much of that may fall tonight between midnight and 7 AM. When you add in the new rain Wednesday night-Thursday some locations may see 2"-4".
Have a great rest of your week. Stay healthy.
