Good Wednesday bloggers,
We had a beautiful start to Wednesday as the sky was cloudless and it allowed us to see Venus and the sunrise. Thursday morning will be different as we will have a complex of thunderstorms moving through the region. But, will your yard or farm receive decent rain? We know how this year has gone. We have seen mostly misses, or least amounts from the rain chances. Let's go through this.
The first chance of thunderstorms we are tracking will occur Thursday morning. It will come from thunderstorms that form this afternoon in Nebraska. Once they form they will head southeast towards us and arrive by sunrise Thursday. There is a slight risk of severe weather today where the thunderstorms will form. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds. They could bring strong winds when they arrive here. We need the rain, but not the severe weather.
WEDNESDAY: It will be hot and humid with highs in the low 90s and a bit more of a breeze than the last several days. The pattern of afternoon cumulus clouds and isolated showers and thunderstorms is moving off to the east. We will be turning our attention to Nebraska this afternoon as thunderstorms form in northern parts of the state around 4 PM.
WEDNESDAY 4-8 PM: The thunderstorms will grow into a large area covering much of Nebraska. The thunderstorms will be heading towards us. This data has a bow echo with the thunderstorms implying damaging winds up there. We will have a calm, warm and humid evening.
WEDNESDAY 8 PM-MIDNIGHT: The thunderstorms will move into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas. Those lines will contain strong winds and torrential rain. We will be dry, warm and humid.
THURSDAY MIDNIGHT-6 AM: It looks like the heaviest and strongest thunderstorms will track west of KC. Manhattan to Iola, KS have the best chance of heavier rain, but also the best chance of strong winds. The KC area would see .10" to .50" of rain on the east side of the thunderstorm complex. This is not set yet as we will have to see where these thunderstorms actually form. Then, we will have to see how they actually track. The most likely track is the one shown here, but a shift of 50-100 miles east or west will make a huge difference.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: It will become partly cloudy with highs in the 80s as we have an influence from rain cooled air. The humidity will remain high. The high heat will be out west. There is a slight chance of new thunderstorms by evening, but most likely that will occur south of here.
FRIDAY: Right now it looks like a mostly dry day with highs 85-90. There is a slight chance for a morning thunderstorm. But, the next better chance will be tied to an approaching cold front.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING: There will be a chance of thunderstorms coming from the northwest, but you can see coverage is not great.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: The cold front will be moving through with a chance of scattered thunderstorms, but again, scattered. At least we will not have to deal with the extreme summer heat. Highs around 110 will be found from western Oklahoma to west Texas. Highs here will be 85-90.
RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS: This is why we titled the blog "It's Trying to Happen Again." We have 3-4 rain chances the next 7 days. It is conceivable that some locations see less than .10" while others see over 2". Now this data has northwest Missouri and far eastern Kansas seeing the most rain. The locations of the least and heaviest are yet to be determined, but you can see that we are once again facing a rain situation that we have become familiar with this spring and summer.
There is still hope that the rain optimism from the last few days returns.
Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.