Weather Blog - Kansas City Is In The Comma Head This Morning

Posted at 7:32 AM, Oct 11, 2021
and last updated 2021-10-11 08:46:35-04

Good morning bloggers,

2" of rain has now fallen over most of the KC metro area. A wet storm continues to spin by this morning and we are currently in the comma head of the storm. Let's take a look.

Surface Map:   7 AM

The surface cyclone is tracking across the Kansas/Missouri border south of KC this morning. As it moves by, that cooler air to the northwest will be pulled into our region. If this was deep into winter, this storm would be producing a foot of snow over parts of eastern Kansas, as we are in the comma head:


Look at the spinning circle south of KC. This is the center of the storm system and the comma head is just north and west of this spinning area of rain and thunderstorms. Another 1" of rain is likely in a few spots this morning, and the rain will exit the area early this afternoon.

This current storm system is the second in a series of four storm systems. Remember this series of storm systems, as once we learn a bit more about this year's cycling pattern, we will be predicting a series of storm systems to return a couple times this winter, and when it returns in the spring, this part of the LRC will produce significant severe weather set ups. This next storm, the third in the series of four storm systems, will be developing tomorrow:

Surface Forecast Valid Tuesday Afternoon

Tuesday looks like a nice day with temperatures warming back into the 70s. By late Tuesday afternoon a few showers and thunderstorms will be developing and heading our way. I am not expecting these to be severe. The severe weather will be developing farther west.

Severe Weather Risk

This Tuesday night and Wednesday storm is a much larger storm system. This third storm in the series of storm systems will produce snow over the Rocky Mountains, and it will produce more showers and thunderstorms for our region. The risk of severe thunderstorms will be lower as the area of thunderstorms moves our way from western Kansas Tuesday night. We will monitor this storm closely for any changes. The chance of rain will go back up to 100% Tuesday night into Wednesday. And, then there is the fourth storm that will bring a nearly 100% chance of rain Thursday into Friday.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Rain, heavy at times, with another 1/2" to 1" of rain likely. The rain will end early this afternoon. Northwest winds 10-25 mph. High: 62°
  • Tonight: Clearing out and cool. Low: 49°
  • Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with the chance of rain 0%. The chance of rain and thunderstorms will increase around sunset. High: 75°
  • Wednesday: A 100% chance of rain with a few heavy thunderstorms. The chance of rain goes down to 0% during the afternoon. Southwest to west winds 10-25 mph. High: 76°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading today's blog. Have a great morning and we will track this storm and the next two in the series of storm systems on KSHB-41 today and tonight.