Weather Blog: Kansas City warms up Friday; maybe snow Monday

9 PM Sunday Forecast
Posted at 10:00 AM, Mar 04, 2022
and last updated 2022-03-04 11:00:45-05

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,

It's Friday! And, the new data is coming in this morning and the Monday storm is already looking a bit different. Each of our storm systems has been related and many of them have had a fascinating similarity. As the storm systems approach Kansas City one big question often comes up, and we have discussed it each time: Will the storm hold together, and how is it tilted? Take a look at the overnight data:

Here are the GFS model (American Model) and another model to compare to:

GFS (American Model)
ICON model

If you have been reading the blog, you likely will remember us having this discussion on the tilt and strength of these storm systems this season. The top map, the GFS model, has the storm tilted a bit less than the ICON model. If the models tilt this storm just a bit more to the right, or more positively tilted, then it will be dry most of the weekend and we will miss the snow. If it is tilted to the left just a bit, then the storm is stronger and we get the rain and snow. The models have been trending towards a more positive tilt, and this would reduce the chance of significant impacts IF this trend continues.

We have a few more days to track this system. In the previous storm systems, a trend develops and then we will be able to have higher confidence in what it means and we will update the forecast. As of this moment at 7:30 a.m., the trend is for the storm to be weaker. Let's see if that trend continues.

For today, let's enjoy the Friday warm-up into the 70s! Have a great weekend!