Weather Blog - Looking Into The Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast

Noon Thanksgiving Day Forecast
Posted at 7:40 AM, Nov 19, 2021
and last updated 2021-11-19 08:48:33-05

Good morning bloggers,

Today is a big day for Rainbow, Sunny, myself, and some third graders in Brookside. They sent me letters a couple of weeks ago asking me all kinds of questions, and they were so cute. Today, Sunny & Rainbow The Weather Dogs will be making their first appearance at a school since the pandemic started. Rainbow was just a puppy back then, and now she is two years old. Sunny will remind her how to behave at the schools, and we will show some pictures or video on KSHB-41 tonight.

While we head off to Brookside, the new data will be rolling in, and I will do a complete analysis and update our thoughts for next week. A complex pattern is setting up for Thanksgiving week. The European Model came in with a stronger holiday weekend storm system, while the other models are still much weaker on any potential travel problems. Confidence is low and we just need another few days to see how the models trend. For travel around Kansas City, we are not seeing any problems through Wednesday. Here is a look at the developing pattern.

A Possible Storm Next Week:

Upper Level Flow Thanksgiving Day

This map above shows the upper level flow forecast for next Thursday, Thanksgiving Day. This shows a storm digging south into Mexico with Kansas City in the southern branch of the flow. The main jet stream is flowing across the northern United States and trying to leave this storm behind. In the following few days, energy comes into the western United States and tries to kick this Mexico storm out into the plains.

Okay, this is one version of this storm. There are other versions from the other models, but every model is all over the place and it is leaving us with very low confidence on if there will be any rain or snow at all in our area. If you are traveling between now and Thanksgiving we see no significant issues. Here is the surface forecast for Wednesday:

Wednesday Forecast

This map shows a mostly dry storm system forming on Wednesday. A surface cyclone, or low pressure center is forecast to be near the Minnesota/South Dakota/Iowa border. The pressure gradient (the close black lines which are called isobars) is tight and this will lead to south winds and temperatures in the 60s Wednesday.

Noon Thanksgiving Day Forecast

By Thanksgiving Day, moisture will be pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico and rain will begin spreading over parts of the southern plains. Colder air will be moving into the KC area Thanksgiving Day. And, then the questions will begin on if this will become more organized on Black Friday and over the rest of the holiday weekend. Confidence is so low that I am not going to do any more analysis than this in the blog this morning. let's see how the new data rolls in today. It may go from a weak storm to a major impacting storm, but at the same time, we may have a trend into a weaker and disorganized storm which would have low or no impact on travel.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. We will be going in-depth with our weather updates as the new data rolls in today. Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town.