Good Tuesday bloggers,
We are tracking the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal, a strong storm system in the Rockies and a strong cold front in the western Plains. These features will make for numerous weather changes the next 24 hours.
Early Tuesday morning the remnants of Cristobal were churning north through Missouri with KC on the western fringe of the system. The rain stayed about 25-50 miles east of the state line. The strong storm system early Tuesday was located in the Rockies. This system is headed to Kansas today.
Let's go through all of these weather changes.
There is a Flash Flood Watch to our east due to Cristobal. It is moving fast enough where there should not be any major flooding. There is a Flash Flood Watch in Nebraska due to the storm system. There is a High Wind Warning in effect across southern Nebraska, central and western Kansas as winds may gust to 50-60 mph behind the storm system. We are in a Wind Advisory later tonight into Wednesday as our winds may gust to 40-50 mph.
Look at the temperature set up at 6 PM today. There will be a corridor with highs around 90 which includes the KC area. It will be in the 40s, windy and rainy across western Kansas.
TODAY 3-8 PM: The remnants of Cristobal will be racing north through Wisconsin. There will be an odd surface trough connecting Cristobal to the main surface low with the strong storm system to the west. A few thunderstorms may form on this trough after 3 PM. If they form, they could be severe. It looks like the main severe threat will be closer to the surface low in southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
There are two main severe threat areas later today. The one east of the Mississippi river is due to the remnants of Cristobal. The one in our region is due to the stronger storm system and cold front.
When we break down the severe threat there is a chance for all forms of severe weather which includes wind gusts 58 mph or higher, hail 3/4" diameter or higher and the chance of a tornado. The chance of seeing a tornado is 2% to 5% within 25 miles of your location. To put this in perspective, last May 28th, the day of the Linwood, KS tornado, there was a 25% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of your location. So, the chance today is more than 5 times less of seeing a tornado than it was last May 28th. That being said, stay weather aware later today and tonight.
TONIGHT 8 PM-MIDNIGHT: Any thunderstorms will race into Iowa as the cold front sweeps through. This means we will have a few clouds as it becomes breezy and much cooler with temperatures in the 60s along with much lower humidity. There will be a nice area of rain with the north winds gusting to 50-60 mph from central Nebraska to central Kansas.
WEDNESDAY MIDNIGHT-7 AM: We will get in on the back side of the main storm. This means it will be cloudy, very windy, with scattered rain showers and temperatures in the 50s. It will be down right chilly! Winds will be west gusting to 40-50 mph early Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: The storm will race away, making for a much nicer afternoon. The sun will return with a decreasing wind. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lower humidity. The wind will be northwest at 15-30 mph.
We will not see much rain with all of these weather changes. Locations around KC will see a trace to .50". A few locations could see a quick 1" if the thunderstorms this afternoon move over your yard or farm.
After Wednesday there is little to no chance of rain for about 5-7 days. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Early next week we may reach the low 90s. So, you may have to get the sprinkler out this weekend.
Have a great week ahead and stay healthy.