Weather Blog: Mild then a Major Change Wednesday-Saturday

Posted at 4:49 PM, Jan 13, 2020
and last updated 2020-01-13 17:49:04-05

Good Monday bloggers,

We had a wild storm followed by a wild Chiefs game. The same sequence of events may play out this week as well. We are tracking yet another complex and wild storm and then we have the AFC Championship game. It will probably be another wild game, but perhaps we can leave out the 24-0 deficit and just have the 51-7! There are a ton of weather changes between tonight and AFC Championship Sunday. Let's go by by day.

TONIGHT: A weak system will zip by this evening and there is a chance for a few rain showers or drizzle. Temperatures will be well above freezing. After midnight it will be cloudy and there is a chance for fog, but unlike Monday morning temperatures will be above freezing with lows 35-40.

TUESDAY: It will start cloudy, but some sun is likely during the day. Highs will be in the 40s, but could jump to the low 50s if we see more sun.

WEDNESDAY: The day will start with temperatures close to 50 along with the chance of drizzle. And, then a strong cold front arrives and temperatures will fall during the afternoon and night with a clearing sky. We will be in the 20s by evening.

THURSDAY: Look at Bismarck, ND Thursday morning! It will be close to -30! We will see lows 10-18. The afternoon will warm to the mid/upper 20s as a storm rapidly organizes to the southwest. If the precipitation arrives as early as Thursday afternoon like this data shows, we could see some snow and sleet to start.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING: This is when we could have a problem, an ice storm. Temperatures will likely stay in the 20s as the precipitation is mostly rain. When rain falls to the ground with temperatures in the 20s, it freezes on contact with all surfaces, freezing rain. It clings to trees and power lines. The other issue is that the precipitation may be rather heavy. You can see the ice-rain line in southern Kansas.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: This data has the temperature rising above freezing by noon. This would help for sure, but there is much uncertainty on how fast the temperature rises above 32. Total rainfall may be .50"-1", so the more this falls with temperatures above 32, the better.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: The storm will move by with an Arctic blast to follow. Friday night may see the rain change to snow before it ends and any water on surfaces by Saturday morning would freeze making for a slick start to the weekend. Saturday, right now, looks dry, breezy and very cold.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY: Right now it looks dry and cold with lows around 10 and highs around 20.

This is quite a complex forecast, so this is not set yet. There is a trend towards colder for the storm, which leads to more of an ice storm chance. But, lets see how things trend on data the next 24 hours.