Good Tuesday bloggers,
We have 24 days left in 2020 and we are nearly 5" below average rainfall for the year. This deficit has been growing since the end of summer and that is why we have a moderate drought creeping into the area.
The weather today and Wednesday will be quite nice as we challenge a record high on Wednesday. While it is nice to get a break from the cold, the rain, and winter weather, we do need precipitation. There are two systems the next 5 days that have a chance to bring some rain or snow. Let's go through this.
TUESDAY: It will be a nice afternoon with highs making a run at 60° along with west to southwest winds 5-15 mph. No change from what we were thinking Monday.
WEDNESDAY: It still looks like we will challenge the record high of 68° set back in 1897. Winds will be south at 5-15 mph. Again, no change from what we were thinking Monday.
THURSDAY: It will be a nice day with highs around 60. Clouds will increase later in the day as winds come in from the south and southeast at 5-15 mph.
FRIDAY: We will be tracking the first of two storm systems. This first system will bring a chance of rain showers as temperatures drop to the 30s. There may be some snow from western Kansas to northwest Iowa.
Now, is this going to be it for precipitation in our area? This first storm is moving fast and is not that strong.
In order for our area to see more precipitation, as we discussed on Monday, we will need a second storm to be more impressive. Below is the upper level flow (18,000 feet) forecast for Friday. It depicts two storm systems we are tracking.
The first one will likely produce what we showed above on Friday, a period of showers as colder air moves in.
The second system will drop into the southern Rockies Friday night and track east across the Plains Saturday. It is this system that could add enough precipitation to help some. The new data in Monday night and early this morning is trending towards this storm bringing rain and snow to our area later Friday night and Saturday. The reason for the trend towards rain or snow with the second storm, is that it is more separate from the first storm and is being allowed to organize better. Also, the first storm is not as strong also allowing for more development from the second storm.
We are confident that we will see some rain or snow Friday and Saturday. We are not confident on how much of each as it really depends on the actions of the second storm.
RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS: This has our area with total amounts .05" to .25", assuming we do not get much rain or snow from both systems and there is not another storm next week.
If we get more from the second storm on Saturday, we could see totals of .25" to .75". If we should add a third storm next week amounts the next 10 days could climb to .75" to 1.50". We know how it goes around here, this is only Tuesday for a set up Friday-Saturday. It will continue to evolve.
.50" of rain/melted snow is actually quite a bit of precipitation for December, 1/3 of the monthly total. December, on average, is the third driest month of the year for Kansas City.
December averages 1.53"
February averages 1.46"
January averages 1.07"
This means during the winter months we average 4.07" of rain/melted snow and we are down almost 5" for 2020. The deficit does not erase on January 1st, so if we get average precipitation this winter we will likely not push back the drought, but we may stall it out.
The average high for today is 42° and it drops to 38° by the 23rd and stays there through the 31st. The high today near 60° and the high Wednesday near 70° are 20 to 30 degrees above average. So, when we say it will feel more like December, we mean highs 35°-45° with lows in the 20s. That is the kind of air that will move in with these next 2 systems. Sometimes you can get an Arctic air outbreak in December. Below is a map of the current temperatures across North America. The Arctic air is not only located way north across northern Canada, but the weather pattern of systems tracking west to east from the Pacific Ocean does not allow for Arctic air to move south and surge into the USA. So, at this time, we do not see any sign of an Arctic outbreak.
Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.
