Weather Blog: Mother's Day Weekend Severe Weather Threat

Posted at 12:52 PM, May 07, 2021
and last updated 2021-05-07 14:09:30-04

Good Friday bloggers,

We have been very lucky this season in avoiding severe weather. There was that one EF0 tornado in southern Johnson county on March 15th. Otherwise, it has been a quiet season, so far. Kansas City has not been in a Tornado Watch in 2 years. We have seen Tornado Warnings, but not watches.

That streak may end Saturday night. However, at this moment, it looks like the bigger tornado threat is across central Kansas.

This is the set up Saturday at 4 PM. The thunderstorm initiation area is usually near the "triple point" where the cold front, warm front and dry line meet at a surface low. That is located in north central Kansas at 4 PM Saturday. The tornado threat is highest near this point and just after thunderstorms form. So, that is why the main tornado threat Saturday is across central Kansas.


This is an image of Saturday night at midnight. You can see we are in the thick of it. The threat around midnight will be shifting from severe to flash flooding.


The weather today through Mother's Day is complex leading to much explaining in the video below. In other words, I do a lot of talking. It is 7 minutes long and goes into detail on what we are expecting this weekend.

Happy Mother's Day
Have a great weekend and stay healthy.