Weather Blog - New Year's Storm Hits & Misses

The Storm At 8:30
Posted at 11:34 AM, Jan 01, 2022
and last updated 2022-01-01 12:39:55-05

Happy New Year bloggers,

The storm is still influencing us this afternoon, but the heavy snow did not materialize. What happened? Well, the storm is there, and it is rather large. Take a look at the 8:34 AM Radar depiction of this storm:

The Storm At 8:30

When I was making the forecast the past few days, I was predicting this system to take a track just south of KC. I discussed this in yesterday's blog. Well, it took a left turn. Instead of going farther south, it wobbled off the forecast track and went north.

Baja Storm Friday
Baja Storm Friday
Storm Turns Left

The top satellite picture shows the storm near Baja California tracking across Mexico. And, the second picture shows the track I predicted, and the track it took.

No excuses here, I blew that forecast. But, only the amounts of snow are blown in the forecast. This is another example of why we often wait until the day or two before a storm to predict amounts. Now, we were leaning towards the 1" to 3" initially. Even that looks like too much.

If we forecasted rain today, and it rained, we would be 100% accurate. When we forecast snow, and it snows, and it is snowing, then why are we wrong? We are wrong in many peoples minds because we didn't get the amount of snow predicted exactly right. If we were pinned down on exact amounts of rain, we would also be wrong almost every time. Again, no exuses here, I am just making a point.

Now, it is snowing. And, we may still end up with one inch of snow. If we do not, then the snowflake contest will continue.

Brutally cold air is moving in!

Arctic Blast

  • Sunny and Rainbow the Weather Dogs had their paws freeze up in just two minutes. So, try to limit the pets exposure in the next 24 hours.
  • Snow will continue, but lightly, with up to an inch possible in the city. 4" or more still possible farther north
  • Temperatures will drop to near 0 tonight with wind chills as low as 15 or 20 below

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great Saturday night!