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Weather Blog: Potential big change at the end of the week

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Posted at 8:48 AM, Jan 06, 2020
and last updated 2020-01-06 10:07:38-05

Good Monday bloggers,

The weather pattern will be rather tame through Wednesday, and then all of a sudden it could become quite crazy. We will not be adding to our yearly snow total through Thursday, but that could change Friday-Saturday.

First, a weak system will bring periods of clouds today with highs in the 40s. Tuesday will be a nice day with highs around 50. Wednesday will see a warm front surge north with a few high clouds as the air will be dry. Lows will be in the 20s and highs will range from the 40s north to 60s south. The Interstate 70 corridor will likely be in the 50- to 55-degree range.

Now, lets go day by day, Thursday through Chiefs Sunday, as there could be quite a few weather changes in this short period of time.

THURSDAY: The warm front that surges through Wednesday will be in the Great Lakes Thursday, so lows Thursday will be around 50° with highs close to 60°. A fast-moving lead system will bring scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to locations along and east of Interstate 35. This puts us on the western fringe of the storm, meaning we could see just a trace to .10" of rain. If it forms farther east, then we will see a few drops or nothing. If it forms farther west, then we see perhaps as much as .25" of rain. A strong cold front moves through Thursday night, regardless of the rain, and this sets up the situation for Friday and Saturday as a potent storm system tracks out of the southwest USA.

FRIDAY: This image is for 8:30 p.m. Friday. Look at what is going on. Severe thunderstorms are possible in Arkansas with temperatures in the 60s. Along and north of Interstate 44 is very heavy rain and thunderstorms that change to freezing rain/sleet. Northern Missouri is having snow. KC is on the northwest fringe of the storm and mainly just dry and cold.

SATURDAY: By Saturday afternoon you can see the storm extends from New England to eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. The southern Missouri ice storm has become a snow storm! Eek! On this data KC misses the storm by about 50-100 miles, seeing only some light snow at times. Now, two things: One, this is far from set. And, two, the trend on the data with each new run has been for the storm to track farther west. This is just Monday and we will need to watch this closely as this has the chance to be one heck of a storm.

CHIEFS SUNDAY: Regardless of where the storm tracks, it still looks dry for Chiefs Sunday. The temperature is still a question. If the storm is bigger and farther west it will be much colder Sunday in the 20s. If the storm is faster and weaker and tracks farther east it could be near 50 degrees. Or, it will be somewhere in the middle.

We have a complex forecast ahead of us as it stands now. Let's see how the data trends the next few days.