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Weather Blog: Rain Chances Will Begin Increasing

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Posted at 8:23 AM, May 21, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-21 09:23:09-04

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City averages just over 5" of rain in May, and we are currently sitting at less than 2" this month with ten days to go. There will be an increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms during the next ten days, and I am expecting and forecasting KC to end up near average by the end of the month.

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This map above shows the European Model rainfall forecast for the next ten days. Kansas City is in the 2 to 4 inch range, and this would get us very close to the 5" average for the month. The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC, and this wetter part of the pattern is likely going to set up per the LRC. So, confidence is high that we will end up with thunderstorms and rain on around six of the next ten days. There will also be a big warm-up over the holiday weekend with highs in the 80s Saturday and Sunday with higher humidity. Any severe weather risk looks to be low at this time.

A chance of thunderstoms early Friday:

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There is a chance of thunderstorms and rain showers early tomorrow as a disturbance moves our way. We have been in an Omega Block pattern that has produced flooding in the east and dry, cloudy, and cooler weather over KC. This block is breaking down today, and waves of energy will begin approaching us from the west. The threat of severe weather is very low and we are at record pace for the slowest start to severe weather season in Kansas history:

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Look at the number of tornadoes, state by state, as of this morning. We will discuss this and a lot more as we share some fascinating video from last year's May 28th Linwood, KS EF4 tornado and answer your questions at our live virtual event. We hope you join us at 1 PM, and come with any questions about weather you may have. We will leave time for answering your questions.

Have a great Thursday!

Gary