Weather Blog - Rain Likely Today With The Heaviest Near The State Line

Rainfall Forecast From The RGEM Model
Posted at 7:21 AM, May 19, 2021
and last updated 2021-05-19 08:49:33-04

Good morning bloggers,

Here we are on May 19, 2021 and Kansas City is still waiting for it's first significant severe weather risk. Could we go the entire spring without one? We will be discussing this further in the next few blogs as there are some other amazing statistics we are compiling as well. There has not been an EF-5 tornado since May 20, 2013 when Moore, OK had an EF-5 devastating tornado. This is an 8-year streak without one EF-5 tornado. The record is 8 years and 1 day, and this will be matched on Friday, and then the record longest streak in between EF-5 tornadoes will be broken Saturday. On May 22, 2011, there was a devastating EF-5 tornado that killed 161 people in Joplin, MO. 41 Action News has a special at 6:30 PM Friday evening on the Joplin Tornado, 10 years later.

We also have our School Day At The K special that will be on 41 Action News at 6:30 PM Saturday. Set the DVR and watch it with your kids as our weather team shares our science knowledge with the help of Science City and the Kansas City Royals!

Where are the Severe Weather Risks? Well, they have been south of KC all season long, and there is another one far to the south today:

Severe Weather Outlook Today

Today's risk is far to the south over far southern Texas today. There is really no risk of severe in Kansas City again today, but there may be a few thunderstorms and heavy downpours:

Rain At 7 AM

This area of rain is marching northward, so get the umbrella ready. This area of rain is marching north and will be in the KC metro area by 8 or 9 AM. There will be other bands forming in this rather unusual weather pattern.

Rainfall Forecast Ending Friday Morning:

Rainfall Forecast From The RGEM Model

This map shows a band of heavy rain totals extending from the Gulf of Mexico north into Kansas City, right up the Kansas/Missouri state line. This RGEM model shows 1/2" to 2" of rain in the next two days. There is a chance of more than that in the middle of the band. After Friday, look at what happens:

Weekend Warm-Up

After Friday, an anticyclone, the opposite of a cyclone which is a storm system, is forecast to develop and move west from Georgia to Missouri. This will heat us up and increase the humidity. The chance of rain won't go down to zero, but most of the weekend looks warm and humid with low rain chances. On this map, you are seeing the big upper level high over southeast Missouri. The main jet stream is way up north in Canada. This is forecast to breakdown next week, but it's timed for this weekend's warm up into the 80s.

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: There is a 100% chance of rain. Rain is moving up the state line this morning and it will make it to KC by mid-morning. There will be other bands of rain moving from south to north. High: 74°
  • Tonight: Rain likely off and on. Low: 64°
  • Thursday: There is a 90% chance of more rain. Rainfall totals of 1/2" to 2" are likely by Thursday night. High: 75°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great day!