Weather Blog - Rain & maybe some snow are in Thursday night's forecast

Thursday Night Storm
Posted at 7:28 AM, Mar 15, 2022
and last updated 2022-03-15 09:00:01-04

Good morning bloggers,

The weather today will be fantastic and then it will warm into the 70s Wednesday. A storm will be approaching on St. Patrick's Day and it looks like it will stay dry until after the parade Thursday. Let's take a look at this next storm system.

500 mb flow forecast (18,000 feet above us):

1 AM Friday

A storm system is forecast to develop near the Oklahoma/Kansas border on Thursday night. In the upper levels, around 18,000 feet above us, we can see this developing storm. The location of where this storm forms is important for a few big reasons.

  1. If the storm forms just a bit farther north, then it will likely be cold enough for some snow accumulation on Thursday night
  2. If the storm forms a bit farther south, then it will likely not be cold enough for any snowflakes, and the rainfall amounts would be lower

We really could use this storm to bring us some beneficial rainfall. This is the American Model, or GFS model, solution. Look at the forecast valid at 1 AM Friday morning:

Thursday Night Storm

There is a band of heavy snow forecast to form from southeast Nebraska into central Kansas. This is forming in the comma head of this storm. If the upper level low is a bit farther north, then it will be colder aloft and the snow would be a bit heavier and more widespread. But, if the storm is just a bit farther south, then it would not cool the layer enough and it would stay all rain.

7 AM Friday Forecast

On this next map, shown above, the storm takes a perfect track to bring heavy rain into our area with it changing to snow for just long enough to produce some accumulation on grassy surfaces. Temperatures will likely be above freezing, but the snow may come down heavy enough to produce accumulations before it would quickly melt a few hours later.

This is one of the two or three models that predict it will be cold enough for snow accumulations:

Snow Forecast

We will learn more in the next three days. We will be monitoring for any trends in the models. We would like to see this chance of snow showing up because it is also an indication that we will be in the comma head, which would increase rainfall totals.

Before we get to this storm, look at this big warm-up due in on Wednesday:

Wednesday Forecast

A cold front will still be way up to the northwest tomorrow. This will provide the conditions for a great spring day with temperatures jumping into the middle 70s tomorrow.

KC Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: Nearly 100% sunshine with light winds. High: 65°
  • Tonight: Clear and cool. Low: 44°
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny. A spectacular day. Light south winds. High: 74°
  • Thursday (St. Patrick's Day): Becoming cloudy with an increasing chance of rain. The chance of rain is 20% by noon and 90% by 9 PM in the evening. High; 60°
  • Thursday night-Friday: A 100% chance of rain. There is a chance of the rain mixing with or changing to snow, and then changing back to rain. Some accumulation of snow is possible on grassy surfaces before sunrise Friday. The rain and snow will move off to the east before noon on Friday. Low: 35° High: 54°

Have a Terrific Tuesday and thank you for sharing in this weather experience!