Good Tuesday bloggers,
River flood warnings have been issued in our area the last 24 hours due to the fact that we have seen 5"-10" of rain the last 2-3 days across central and northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and into Nebraska.
This is not last year for two reasons. 1. There was not a massive northern Plains snow pack to melt where the entrance to the Missouri River basin is located. 2. After Thursday we are going to see 5-7 days with little rain in the Plains. Last year, it just kept raining after the big snow melt caused issues. We will watch this, but it is a different animal than 2019.
New rainfall through Thursday will be .10"-1" with a new 1"-2" possible in some locations. This data has the band over the wettest areas. This depends on how a band of heavier rain sets up Wednesday night-Thursday. After Thursday it looks dry for several days.
Now to the weather today. We have a storm system tracking northwest west into Nebraska. Highs reached the 80s across central and eastern Missouri into Iowa. These are the locations that could have severe weather today and the chance for a brief tornado. Eastern Kansas and western Missouri will see the scattered showers end from south to north after 3 PM.
Here is the actual radar from 255 PM today. The model shown above did pretty well. It over did the thunderstorms in eastern Missouri, but more may form later. The main threat for severe weather and tornadoes is across Iowa.
WEDNESDAY: A main upper low will be located over eastern Oklahoma. It is this low, as it has been forming, that has been sending disturbances our way from the south. Our weather will not improve until this low exits.
This day around here will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 70s. The rain will be more widespread across eastern Missouri as a new disturbance rotates west around the main upper low.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: The disturbance from the east will rotate westward into northwest Missouri. This will likely generate a band of very heavy rain and thunderstorms that will track west then southwest around the main upper level low that is tracking east-northeast.
If you get underneath this area, you could see a new 1"-2".
This is a zoomed in version of the map above.
You can see how the band of heavier rain begins to stretch out and weaken during the day Thursday. Temperatures will be in the 60s where the rain band is located and in the 70s where it is not. Areas that are in the 60s may jump back to the 70s after the rain band exits.
A ridge builds in for the weekend and we are looking at some nice weather with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. A weak disturbance may bring a shower Saturday night.
Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.
