Good Monday bloggers,
Our warming trend is underway despite the thick low clouds. We have reached the mid 60s today. The low clouds, as of Monday afternoon, were centered in our region. These will likely hang tough tonight into Tuesday morning. So, if we are going to come close to or reach 80 on Tuesday, the clouds must clear. Let's go through the warm up and the end of week and weekend changes.
TUESDAY: Tonight we will stay above 60 all night as the clouds remain along with south winds at 10-20 mph. We have data for tomorrow ranging from staying cloudy all day with highs around 70 to mostly sunny all day with highs in the mid 80s. We feel the clouds will clear before noon allowing us to see highs 75-80. Either way, it will be a nice day. A weak boundary will slip south tomorrow evening and there is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms, especially across central and southeast Missouri. We will keep an eye on it.
WEDNESDAY: A strong cold front will arrive during the afternoon. We should rise well into the 70s before the front arrives. This front is not as strong as the front last week, but we could still see a light freeze Friday morning. Thunderstorms will likely form along the front, but not until it moves into eastern Missouri and Illinois. These thunderstorms could end up being pretty good size. We will watch this closely as well.
The upper level flow on Wednesday features a wet storm system over southern California and a swift northern branch of the jet stream flowing from western Canada into the Midwest. This northern branch is responsible for the Wednesday cold front.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: There is conflict in the data. Some models, like the one shown below, take the wet California system east into the Rockies and squash it before it reaches the Plains. It gets squashed by the northern branch. Other data holds the storm over California while the northern branch trough swings by. Thus, maintaining the system out there. Bottom line, either way these days look mostly dry and colder with highs in the 50s and lows Friday 30-35.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: There is more model discrepancy. A new stronger system will drop south through the Rockies. The data shown has a weaker system, while other data have the system much stronger. If the second system is much stronger not only would we be dealing with a bigger storm, but also it would mean a more likely chance of getting the first system from California. Regardless of how strong the second storm is, the upper level flow will be coming in from the north, so a new blast of cold is looking likely. This means not only could we see a light freeze Friday, but perhaps a stronger freeze next week. If you grew up in Kansas City, you know not to plant outdoors until the end of the month. Let's see how this looks tomorrow.
Have a great week and stay healthy.
