Good Thursday afternoon bloggers,
Thunderstorms started increasing after 4:30 p.m. from northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri along and ahead of a cold front. This has prompted Severe Thunderstorm and Flash Flood watches to be in effect.
The main severe threats are large hail and damaging wind, but flash flooding may end up being the bigger issue. Let's go through this:
This was the set up around 3:30 p.m. The front had moved little since noon. Thunderstorms were forming along the front in northwest Missouri and ahead of the front in northeast Kansas as of 4:30 p.m. This is the start of our event.
THURSDAY 9 PM: The thunderstorms will be increasing in coverage and intensity across northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. Some thunderstorms will contain large hail and damaging winds. This means the KC area will likely stay dry until 8 to 9 p.m.
THURSDAY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT: The thunderstorms will organize into lines. This is when strong winds and flash flooding could become more of a threat. Rainfall rates will be 2" to 3" per hour. You can also see a break in the line. There is a chance of that, which means a few locations will get missed. This is also the time when we have the best chance for thunderstorms in the Kansas City area.
FRIDAY MIDNIGHT-7 AM: The line will sag to southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. We may see showers linger until around 7 a.m.
Locations that see thunderstorms could get 1" to 3" of rain every one to two hours, which opens the door for flash flooding. If you see high water, "Turn Around Don't Drown." If a gap forms in the line and areas get missed, rainfall amounts may be as low as a trace to 0.25" in those locations. It looks like any gaps will be small as it stands now.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: You can't rule out a brief shower or thunderstorm, but it looks like a nice afternoon with highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: A weaker system will move by bringing a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the low to mid 70s. The severe threat is rather low.
SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY: We will be in for some great May weather. There will be little chance of rain with highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the 50s. By Wednesday, highs may reach the 80s. We will be in an "Omega Block" pattern. We will have more on this in the next few days.
Have a great night, stay weather aware and healthy.