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Weather Blog - Severe Weather Risk Over Central Kansas Tonight As A Storm Approaches

Severe Risk Tonight
Posted at 7:34 AM, Apr 06, 2021
and last updated 2021-04-08 10:52:27-04

Good morning bloggers,

A rather interesting and strong storm system is developing and approaching Kansas & Missouri. We will experience impacts from this storm between now and Thursday. The grass could use a good drink of water and there is a chance of somewhere between 0.10" and 1.50" of rain in the next 48 hours. There is also a risk of severe weather, most likely west of Topeka, KS tonight. Let's take a look.

Surface Analysis At 7 AM

Warm & humid air is surging north this morning from the Gulf of Mexico. This will be the fuel for thunderstorms depending on where they get triggered tonight. A surface low pressure area was centered near the Kansas/Nebraska border early this morning. By 7 PM, that surface low and developing cyclone will most likely intensifying over southwest Kansas, as you can see below:

Surface Forecast Valid At 7 PM Tonight

A dry line is forming, which separates the warm moist air from the drier air to the west. This is shown with the brown line. The surface low will be winding together the cold front (blue line), the warm front (red line), and the dry line into what is called the triple point. Conditions will become favorable for thunderstorm development over central and western Kansas northeast of the surface low, or triple point. This is where the risk is today:

Severe Risk Tonight

This risk area for severe thunderstorm development is shown in the red shaded area. Thunderstorms are most likely going to form in this red zone and then track northeast. By the time they reach the Kansas/Missouri border they will have weakened. There is still a chance of a severe thunderstorm or two later tonight around 2 to 5 AM.

Wednesday Afternoon Development:

Surface Forecast 4 PM Wednesday

This storm is another tough one to forecast. Wednesday afternoon is a rather complex set up with surface boundaries/fronts shown in the black dashed lines. I didn't fully analyze this as they seem to be undefined boundaries. There will be a level 1 out of 5 risk in that line, so a marginal risk. After this goes by, there will be a spinning area of rain developing in the comma head. This is when we have our best chance of rain as you can see below, and this may wait until late Wednesday night or Thursday.

Surface Forecast Valid 7 AM Thursday

Kansas City Forecast Time-Line:

  • Today: Sunny with a few periods of clouds. There is a very slight chance of a shower this afternoon. The chance of rain is 10%. South winds 15-25 mph. High: 80°
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of thunderstorms. The chance goes up to 60% in far northwestern Missouri. South winds 10-20 mph and gusty. Low: 62°
  • Wednesday: Periods of clouds with a 30% chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm. Rainfall amounts so far from 0.00" to 0.25" possible. High: 67°
  • Thursday: Cloudy and much colder. There is a 70% chance of a cold rain. Northwest to west winds 20-30 mph. High: 49°
  • Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 70°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great Tuesday. Stay with 41 Action News &, and we'll keep you advised.