Weather Blog - Snow Chances During The Arctic Blasts

6 AM Thursday
Posted at 7:33 AM, Feb 02, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-02 09:11:52-05

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is getting blocked up over Canada and this is going to result in an Arctic Blast. This Arctic blast is due in on Saturday, and then the outlook for the next two weeks looks like we will have a true winter experience. Oh dear, what does that mean? A true winter experience means we will be dealt a winter blow with these Arctic blasts that will come in two to four surges, and there will be some snow. By the time we fully get out of this part of the cycling weather pattern March will be approaching, and this means spring will be just around the corner. We have had a mild winter up to this point, and this is about to be a sudden and noticeable change arriving Super Bowl weekend.


My Aunt Margy lives in Manhattan. She is 73 years old and stuck inside as you can see how dangerous her steps are outside. 1 to 2 feet of snow fell from New York City and many of the other big cities around New York. This storm just absolutely blasted them. Did the LRC predict this storm? This year's pattern is around a 46-day cycle, 46 days ago while New York was having another one foot snowstorm, I texted my brother forecasting another one around February 1. Well, it happened!

Manhattan, New York Picture taken by Margery Cohen

My Aunt was planning on getting out to take some more pictures today. Hopefully someone clears some of that snow. She has lived in Manhattan for 55 years now. I visited her when I was 13 years old, and she still lives in the same apartment.

Kansas City Snow Forecast:

While New York City continues to experience snow this morning, Kansas City is still sitting at 6" of snow for the entire season. Could this be about to change? Here are two model forecasts that came out while we were sleeping for the next ten days:

Snow Forecast From European Model (Next Ten Days)
Snow Forecast Next Ten Days American Model

The two maps above are the American Model (GFS) and the European Model snowfall forecasts for the next ten days. They both show around 3 to 6 inches of snow, with the American Model showing a bit more. Again, KC has had 6" of snow in the first 100 days of this season, and the outlook on these two models is for around the same amount in the next ten days. It is something we will discuss on our newscasts on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Probability Of Snow Amounts In KC - Next Two Weeks:

  • The chance of 1" or more: 95%
  • The chance of 3" or more: 60%
  • The chance of 6" or more: 30%
  • The chance of 10" or more: 10%

My gut instinct is that we will see 3" to 8" of snow in the next two weeks. There is a slight chance of more than 8". Let's see how it all lines up.

The Blocking Pattern Leading To The Arctic Blast Watch:

Arctic Blast Watch

The Arctic Air Watch is in effect for the next two weeks. The first blast of Arctic air will arrive Saturday. Between now and then there is a lead cold blast due in Thursday with a chance of rain or snow with that one. It isn't the Arctic blast, but it will be quite the interesting day. Let's start with Wednesday as the Thursday storm approaches.

Thursday Morning

A big warm up will arrive tomorrow and it may get close to 60 degrees with south winds increasing. That low pressure area over northeastern Colorado will track across Kansas by Thursday:

6 AM Thursday

This map above shows the low near KC, and it will likely be near 50 degrees at 6 AM Thursday. That swath of snow and rain needs to be watched closely. There are some solutions that blast us with cold and snow by just after noon on Thursday as you can see below:

Noon Thursday Forecast

It will drop from near 50 degrees into the 20s Thursday afternoon with a chance of rain and snow. Some accumulation is not out of the question. The most likely scenario is that this will track just north of KC, and I will analyze and show the latest trend on 41 Action News tonight.

The Block Strengthens

Super Bowl Sunday Upper Level Flow

What is causing all of these winter changes? There is a big block forming over northern Canada. One formed last week and it wasn't strong enough to blast the Arctic air southward. This one is stronger, and strong enough to give me 100% confident that the Arctic air will blast south into the United States. And, once it does arrive, it will be difficult to move it out.

Sunday Forecast

Look how cold it is just north of Kansas City on Super Bowl Sunday. This is a forecast valid at 4 PM, and it shows 8 degrees in Kirksville, MO and 17 below zero in Minneapolis. Ouch! These numbers have been coming in 10 degrees colder than this on some models.

Today's Weather: Cloudy and cold with the clouds staying stubborn again. There may be some sun sneaking out this afternoon with temperatures warming into the 40s. There has been some freezing fog this morning with some frost on the windshields. So, get the scraper out.

We still have a few more days before the Arctic Air arrives. And, that near 60 degree day is likely on Wednesday! Let's enjoy it and remember that March is not that far away.


Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog, did come out this morning. He saw his shadow and was petrified. He went back in for six more weeks of winter. And, with what is coming our way, let's prepare for the groundhog to be right this year!

Kansas City Weather Time-Line:

  • Today: A few snowflakes floating around with flurries early today. Expect it to be cloudy and cold with the clouds gradually breaking up this afternoon. High: 44°
  • Tonight: Partly cloudy with south winds gradually increasing. Low: 32°
  • Wednesday: Mostly sunny, much warmer, & windy. South winds 15-25 mph. High: 59°
  • Thursday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of a few showers, rain or snow showers. Some accumulation is a possibility as cold air blasts in. High: 50 degrees early in the day falling into the 30s or 20s during the afternoon.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog, featuring the LRC and the cycling pattern. I hope everyone is doing well. Have a terrific Tuesday. And, remember, let's enjoy right now, one day at a time!