Good Sunday bloggers,
There is an unusual amount of agreement in the data on this chance of snow Monday night and Tuesday. We know how it goes around here when there is a chance of snow. Something usually goes wrong even up to the last minute. So, this can still happen with this snow chance, but so far a problem getting snow is not showing up. We will be watching this closely.
Before we get into the forecast, how rare is snow in April? How about after April 19th?
It has snowed 40 times in April since 1888. The most snow occurred in 1983 on three separate dates, April 4 and 8-9.
Now, let's break this down further. Our chance of snow is on April 20th. Snow is much more rare after April 19th. It has snowed in just 7 years and 9 total times since 1888 after April 19th. The heaviest snow occurred on April 20, 1992 when 2.7" of snow occurred. We have a chance of seeing the biggest snow ever recorded in KC after April 19th this week.
OK, enough stats, let's go through these rapid weather changes.
Any morning showers will exit by around noon. This will lead to a nice afternoon with highs around 60 under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. You can see the strong cold front we are tracking moving through the northern plains.
Tonight will be clear, calm and cool with lows around 40.
The strong cold front will be on our doorstep around noon. Temperatures will rise to 65-70 ahead of the front and drop to the 30s and 40s behind the front. So, KC will warm to 65-70 by around noon under a sunny sky. The afternoon will see increasing clouds and wind with decreasing temperatures. You will know when the front comes through your location as winds pick up from the north and gust to 30-35 mph. Temperatures will start to drop quickly. It will be dry all day.
MONDAY 1 PM:
As we zoom in closer, this model has 70 at Emporia, KS to 42 at Maryville, MO. The front is easy to see as it is located right over KC.
MONDAY 1 PM TO TUESDAY 2 AM:
It will be dry and windy with temperatures dropping to the 30s. A band of mostly snow, heavy at times, will be entering northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. The precipitation may briefly start as rain/sleet. Temperatures in the precipitation band will drop to 30-32 which is plenty cold enough to support accumulating snow.
TUESDAY 2-10 AM:
This is the time window for our area to see accumulating snow. Snow, heavy at times, is looking likely with temperatures 30-32. Some data just came out with temperatures 28-30. If the snow comes down hard enough, long enough, especially before or just after sunrise, (less to no affect from the infrared radiation of the sun.) it will stick to all surfaces. Now, it will stick to grass the most, but roads are not exempt from getting slick.
TUESDAY 10 AM-5 PM:
The snow will end quickly from west to east 10 AM-noon. It is April, so by noon temperatures should rise back to the mid and upper 30s. There is even a chance of some sun by afternoon. This will melt much of the snow, especially on roads. Highs may reach 40-45.
Now that it looks like snow, how ,much?
This map is using data from our in house model. A widespread 1" to 3" of snow looks likely. Most of the snow will stick on grass, but even slush under 1" on roads can be slick.
Here is a look at the 7 models we look at. You can see the KSHB model has 1.5" which is shown in the map above. The other 6 models are quite consistent showing mostly amounts in between 2 and 3". This bring the 7 model average to 2.3" of snow.
Here is a summary of the weather timeline. Again, the main window for the accumulating snow is 2-10 AM Tuesday. There are still things that can lean towards less snow and there are things that can make this heavier than we are are forecasting. This is not totally set yet.
A hard freeze is possible Thursday morning. After that, spring will make a comeback.
Have a great week, stay safe, stay healthy.