Good Sunday bloggers,
We are going to be having quite a few weather changes the next 7 days as we track three storm systems. First, this morning we had snow showers which does not count as one of the three storm systems we are tracking. Let's go through this day by day.
SUNDAY: These snow showers were not heavy enough and it was not quite cold enough to cause any road issues. There may be some patches of snow on roofs or some grass. These snow showers will end during the afternoon. It will remain cloudy with highs around 40 and a east wind 5-15 mph.
MONDAY: The first storm system arrives later tonight, bringing rain showers and drizzle. The rain showers may end Monday afternoon leaving periods of drizzle. It will be cold with lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s. This not a big storm and will bring .10" to .50".
ST. PATRICK'S DAY: This looks like the best day of the week with highs around 50, light wind and the chance for some peeks of sun.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: The second system arrives bringing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Right now it looks like the heaviest will be across southeast Kansas to central Missouri with KC on the northwest edge.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: The second system moves off to the east as the third storm system begins to affect the Plains. A warm front will be setting up with 70s south and 40s/50s north. KC will get to around 60. Showers and thunderstorms may linger around here and you begin to think about severe weather as winter and spring battle. This warm front and the third system will activate later Wednesday night and Thursday.
THURSDAY MORNING: The warm front and part of the third system will move across the region generating a large area of rain and heavy thunderstorms. Some severe weather is possible as a snowstorm begins in western Nebraska and Wyoming. We will be 55-60 with heavy rain and thunderstorms and a chance for flash flooding.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: The surface set up is one where severe weather comes to mind. We have a low pressure in northwest Kansas with a cold front extending southwest, a warm front extending east and northeast and a dry line (leading edge of drier air) bulging out across Kansas. This forms a triple point at the surface low. This is a severe weather set up, especially during the spring. So, we will have to watch this. There is a limiting factor. The morning rain and thunderstorms will likely be so widespread that it may not be warm enough during the afternoon to generate severe weather along the dry line. There could be some severe weather near the triple point in northwest Kansas. We will have to watch for some flash flooding. A blizzard will be setting up across western Nebraska to South Dakota. Look at the temperatures. 65-70 here to Omaha and 21 in Valentine, NE.
FRIDAY: The storm will be racing to New England and the cold air will be rushing in Thursday night and Friday on northwest winds gusting to 40-50 mph. We could see some snow showers Friday morning. Temperatures will drop to the 30s and this could lead to a hard freeze Saturday morning with lows 20-25.
RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS: This data has quite a range across the region. .50"-1" of rain is forecast across far northwest Missouri to 3"-5" of rain from around I-35 and points east. The zone of heaviest rain may shift north or south by 50-100 miles. Regardless, all locations will see decent rain the next 7 days. Keep in mind, all of March averages 2.37".
SNOWFALL FORECAST NEXT 7-10 DAYS: We may see some snow showers next Friday, but the main snowstorm will occur from Wyoming to Michigan with 10" to 20" possible. And look at South Lake Tahoe. They will see a new 30"-40" of snow after 1-2 feet has already occurred. This is great news for the warm/dry season water supply. Before this snow they were at about 35% of average precipitation. The rainy season ends in 3-4 weeks, so this is good news for California.
Have a great week and stay healthy.