Good Monday night bloggers,
The storm track has shifted south, putting KC in the path of the heaviest snow. We talked about how this could happen.
In most years, it shifts in the direction to miss KC. The winter of 2023-24 is different.
At 5:30 p.m., the main storm was located in northwest Oklahoma. The comma head of the storm is the part of the storm where you get the most prolonged and heaviest precipitation. It is usually a narrow zone where the absolute heaviest occurs.
Based on new data that came in all afternoon, the most intense part of the comma head seems to be aimed at KC. So, this is why we have doubled our original snowfall forecast.
Let's go through this.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY (10 PM-5 AM):
This is when the heaviest snow of the storm will move through, the comma head.
Here is a zoomed-in look at the heavy snow.
There may be times when the snow comes down at the rate of 1-2" per hour. There was some thundersnow in southwest Kansas around 2-4 p.m.
So, there is a slight chance that happens again when it is here.
TUESDAY 5 AM-NOON:
The heaviest snow will move off, but light to moderate snow will continue. The wind will begin to pick up as well to the northwest at 20-30, gusting 35-45 mph.
Blowing snow will be an issue, too. Temperatures will drop to 29-30 by noon, so any water and slush will start to freeze.
TUESDAY NOON-5 PM:
The snow will end from west to east as the wind continues, so blowing snow will still be an issue. The wind will rapidly come down after 5 p.m.
The temperatures will also come down to the mid-20s by 4-5 p.m.. This will begin to freeze up the slush.
Lows Tuesday night will be in the teens. Anything untreated will be frozen solid.
We are now going for 6-8" of snow with 80% falling between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. Northwest Missouri is now in a 2-4" band.
Here is the winter storm timeline.
The roads will be wet with some slush until the heavy snow moves in 10-11 p.m. After that, the roads will get progressively worse.
Tomorrow afternoon, roads may be fair, but blowing snow may be a problem.
Have a great night and week.