Good morning bloggers,
Today, we will look into the weather for the big game at Arrowhead on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns, the big warm up for this week, and a look into the LRC!
Snow In Texas! This picture was taken by a good friend of mine in Tyler, TX. Brett Anthony just became the Chief meteorologist of KYTX and he may not see this much snow in the next few years, not to mention yesterday. He said up to 6 inches of snow fell down there, and the storm is now moving across Louisiana and Mississippi.
A storm is tracking across the deep south this morning and it is producing some snow in some rare spots. The blue shade shows the snow, and there are thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico as shown below:
The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC, and this is another southern storm. Areas south of KC from Oklahoma into TX has been a target for these storm systems, while Kansas City has mostly been missed. When the pattern first set up, In the first cycle of this years pattern, there was a strong storm system in almost the exact same spot this storm was tracking across this morning. Hurricane Delta was intensifying on October 8th and 9th, around three months ago. It had become a Category 3 Hurricane Delta was making a turn towards Louisiana. When Delta moved inland over Louisiana, I marked down January 10th to look for a reflection of this storm, and here it is, but this time it is a winter storm over the deep south. Take a look:
Weather20/20 (Weather2020.com) has been making accurate predictions of tropical storms and hurricanes the past few years including a few predictions made 7 to 8 months before the storm even had a cloud. Remember this blog in a few months, because this part of the pattern will cycle through near the last week of August. There is a 64% chance of a named tropical storm right in this same spot in 7 months. There are signs of another active hurricane season ahead with La Niña still developing this winter. The LRC let's us know when things will happen, so we will be monitoring this part of the pattern next summer.
Now, understanding the cycling pattern helps us make forecasts of other impacting storm systems weeks to months ahead of time. It also helps us predict when we will have winter and spring storm systems here in KC. This year's pattern only has a few parts of it that are capable of producing winter storms that will cycle through, and there is a signature part of the pattern that will cycle through later this month. This part of the pattern produced our early snowfall in October. It had much larger impacts on Oklahoma with a major ice storm, and then a snow storm in the previous two cycles. How will it affect us in this third LRC cycle?
The Arctic Oscillation (AO):
There is another factor developing in the next couple of weeks. The AO has dipped negative in recent weeks, and now it has a spread of possibilities from going back to near neutral, positive, or staying negative. When the AO index dips to -5 or -6, then there is a good chance of blocking aloft over Alaska, northern Canada, and Greenland. When these blocks form, the chance of Arctic air blasting south is much higher. On this graphic above, the spread of solutions is all over the place around a week from now. And, right now, the Arctic air is still stuck over Canada. This will allow us to have a mild week as the Chiefs prepare to play the Browns on Sunday afternoon. We will be monitoring this index and other parts of the big atmospheric puzzle. For now, let's enjoy a mild winter week of weather.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: Mostly sunny. Yes, the sun will finally be out in full force for the first time in many days. High: 46°
- Tonight: Clear & cold. Light winds. Low: 28°
- Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a light southwest breeze at 5-10 mph. High: 53°
- Wednesday: Mostly sunny with west to southwest winds 10-15 mph. High: 58°
- Outlook for the Browns/Chiefs game at Arrowhead: Partly cloudy, breezy, and colder. High: 36°
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great start to the week.