Good Sunday bloggers,
We are in for another hot day with no rain. There were a few light showers along I-29 this morning, but that won't do much for yards and farms needing rain. The KC area missed the rain last week when the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal tracked 100 miles east followed by the main storm tracking 100 miles northwest.
In order to keep your yard green this time of year you need 1" to 2" of rain per week. So, it has been mostly dry for a week and rain will not enter the forecast until we break a ridge that is currently in place over the middle of the USA. This is why we have issued a Sprinkler Warning if you want to keep the yard green.
There is a storm system in the Rockies lifting north and a storm system in Ohio dropping south. We are in the middle of the upper level ridge. A weak disturbance has meandered into the ridge this morning and this is why we have some clouds and a few light showers. When will the ridge break down? Let's go through this.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY: This is the graphic form of what we see on the satellite picture above. We are in the middle of this ridge. Storm systems are seen in the northern Rockies and in the eastern Midwest.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY: The storm in the Rockies has moved into Canada, but a trough remains. The system from the eastern Midwest is now stalled in the southeast USA. We remain under a thin, but, long ridge. It is in the process of weakening.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY: The ridge has broken down as the trough in the Rockies moves east. The system in the southeast USA is opening up and headed out to sea.
So, by Friday the door is open for widespread rain and thunderstorms. The latest data is suggesting the first bigger round will occur from around I-80 and points north. The location of the thunderstorms will be dependent on where a cold front is located. It will likely be next weekend before we have a decent chance of rain. Sometimes, the models have the rain north, but it ends up shifting south faster. Regardless, it will be 5-6 more days before we have a chance of rain. Is there a way we get mostly missed by this next round of rain chances? Yes. The rain could be north Friday, the front surges south and lights up south of our area next weekend. It is still 5-7 days away and we will follow this all week.
Here is a closer look at Sunday and Monday.
SUNDAY: The system dropping south across the eastern Midwest has generated a "back door" cold front. This means a front that comes in from the northeast and/or east. This front, however, has become a stalled "back door" cold front. Our area is stuck on the hot side. We will see highs in the low 90s with highs around 80 from central Iowa to the eastern 1/2 of Missouri. Chicago is seeing highs in the 60s! The cooler air is enhanced in Chicago due to winds off of Lake Michigan.
MONDAY MORNING: The front will remain stalled with lows here around 70. Lows will be around 60 from central Iowa to the eastern 1/2 of Missouri.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: The front is still stalled so we will see highs 90-95 with 80s across eastern Missouri. The cooler air will never get here.
We show this image valid at 10 AM Monday. You can see a nice line of rain and thunderstorms along the Mississippi river. This line will move due south along the eastern edge of the ridge. So, this is about as close meaningful rain will get to our area until Friday-Saturday.
Have a great week. Stay cool and healthy.