Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC. The tornado that happened in Alabama for example had a level of predictability to it happening within a few miles of where it happened. This is the third cycle of the LRC, and in the first two cycles there was also some severe weather in the south in this part of the pattern. Exactly on the LRC cycle, there was a tornado within 30 miles of where this one happened on Monday. I tell you this to stress that the weather pattern is cycling according to the LRC, and we can predict severe weather down to a day or two in a forecast made months in advance. We will be monitoring this part of the pattern for a much stronger and more wide spread severe weather event around the second week of March, and around my birthday, April 24th.
It is the entire weather pattern that is cycling over the Northern Hemisphere. The LRC has kept all of the major winter storms away from KC, but it has been close. Maryville, MO had a half foot of snow earlier this week, so when we go through this last winter cycle in February and March, we have to watch for some subtle differences that may end up finally hitting KC at least once. It has been a mild winter here, could it end with a bang?
This storm, shown above, is in the Saturday forecast. As it tracks north, it will begin tapping colder air and Iowa is about to have another snowstorm. It looks like it will take a track to bring Kansas City just rain, but some snowflakes are possible at the tail end Saturday night. Expect 1/2" to 1" of rain from this storm, which will add to our total for this wet month of January.
1.3" of snow fell at KCI Airport and this put us up to 6" for the season. We are still 9.5" away from my 15.5" forecast. There is a chance that much could fall in the next month.
The AO and NAO have been in negative territory recently. The AO dipped negative at the end of 2020, and it has stayed there. It just dipped to -4 and a block formed in Canada. If it does dip just a bit lower, this influence on the pattern may be significant enough to finally release the Arctic air. Look at this Arctic Blast forecast from last night's midnight model run.
That is a brutally cold blast of Arctic air, but it is still a bit suspect. And, this is a forecast for Super Bowl Sunday. If the AO dips deeper negative, we may not just have Arctic blasts, but also the better chance of accumulating snowfalls.
Update: The new data did come in with two or three possibilities of an Arctic Blast in the next two to three weeks. It is still something we need a couple of more days to put our meteorological hands onto, so more soon. For now. Expect that sunshine to come out around 2 PM this afternoon. I am ready for that, one day at a time!
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: Becoming sunny this afternoon. High: 41°
- Friday: Increasing south winds and warmer. It will mostly sunny with increasing high clouds. South winds 15-30 mph. High: 52°
- Saturday: Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain. Rainfall amounts between 1/2" and 1" are likely. High: 50° and then dripping later in the day. Windy with south winds shifting to the north at 20-30 mph.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great Thursday.
Gary
