Good Thursday Bloggers —
Our ridge rider storm pattern is persisting as we close out the work week with some severe weather possible.
The heat dome that has been holding from southern Kansas into Mexico for much of the last few weeks is finally breaking down. That break down has basically left us on the edge of a highway of energy that continued to funnel waves of energy at us this week — and it's not quite done yet.
Over the next 24 to 48 hours, we are going to start to really push that heat dome south.
As this ridge breaks down the low pressure system hanging in southern Kansas will start to get more active. The main focus for severe weather will be dependent on where this stationary boundary and low meander for the next 48 hours.
This Evening
Some showers and storms could form between 5 to 10 p.m. along the stationary boundary which will sit south of Kansas City this evening. These will be more garden variety storms that should stay below the severe threshold. So main focus will be brief heavy rain and lightning.
Overnight - Friday morning
The bigger concern tonight will be a complex of storms that will form in western Kansas. Think of that stationary front as a highway for storms. As storms form tonight in western Kansas they will track towards Kansas City. We are watching for storms to approach our area by 2 to 6 a.m.
These storms should weaken as they approach Kansas City, but some uncertainty does remain with just how much. Make sure you are following along with Lindsey Anderson for Friday morning commute updates.
Severe storms develop in western Kansas this evening & head our way overnight! Expect storms in the area tomorrow morning - there's still questions on how strong or severe storms will be when they arrive in KC.@kshb41 pic.twitter.com/9PFkiykIH0
— Lindsey Anderson (@lnanderson) August 3, 2023
Saturday
This is our big pattern change day! Saturday that low in western Kansas will begin to develop further and actually begin to move a bit. This shortwave will then develop a trailing cold front that will impact Kansas City. This is a better set up for severe storms then our ridge rider set up as been and why we've been watching for multiple days now.
Before this front arrives though, we are expecting some morning rain and thunder on Saturday. This early activity will toss us a slight curve ball, as it could suppress convection for much of the day. But once the system starts moving it will be interacting with a very moist and unstable environment so, there's that.
The risks we are watching for Saturday afternoon-evening are mainly focused on large hail and damaging winds. There is still some uncertainty with timing on this system and the morning showers and storms could also impact the forecast, so make sure you are following along for forecast updates if you have outdoor plans Saturday.
Next week
The heat dome that moved in at the end of July is finally moving on - we will see it nudge well south, basically back into Mexico come Monday. That means we've got a refreshing forecast to talk about. By Monday we are talking highs in the upper 70s for some WITH low humidity as the cherry on top... ahhh are you ready? In fact much of next week is going to be feeling mellow when it comes to our temperature trend.
But we are also holding onto an unsettled pattern so we could be talking about some wet days. Right now August 8-10 is looking to be our next window for storms.
So let's get through some storms tonight, Friday morning and Saturday... and then let's get ready for a refreshing start to next week.
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