Weather Blog - Summer begins soon with cold fronts showing up

7 PM Tuesday
Posted at 7:19 AM, Jun 20, 2022
and last updated 2022-06-20 09:11:35-04

Good morning bloggers,

It has been quite the week. I arrived in Milwaukee last Monday for a big week of visiting with many of my peers in meteorology, an amazing discussion with some of the "titans" in the field, some injuries and presentations.

Conference In Milwaukee

  • On Friday, I presented the LRC to the conference
  • There were many discussions on Climate Change
  • We had some great presentations on how best to present the weather

And, on last Tuesday I was texting and walking on my way to breakfast, around a 20 minute walk along the river in downtown Milwaukee, and I bumped into a bench. I could tell a different story, but I always tell you the truth. I literally bumped into a bench and somehow pulled my right hamstring. It is slightly better now, but it's only been six days.

On Friday, I presented the LRC to my peers. The first question at the end of my talk was excellent, by Paul Gross, a Meteorologist in Detroit. He wondered if the LRC changes when there is a phase change in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). He said he loved seeing the advances as he had been at all of the previous five LRC presentations in the past 20-years.

The LRC is the centerpiece of the big atmospheric puzzle and ENSO influences it, but the LRC continues regardless of phase change from La Niña to El Niño.

In my discussion I showed how the major tornado disasters in 2013, the last EF-5 Tornado to strike the the world in Moore, OK and the El Reno Tornado are directly related to Super Storm Sandy. The 10-year anniversary of Sandy is in late October this year. We will discuss in a few months!

The Current Weather Pattern:
Today is the last day of spring! Summer begins on June 21, and there are cold fronts showing up. There are also some chances of rain showing up as well. Here is a look at the 7 p.m. Tuesday surface forecast:

7 PM Tuesday

As we move into summer, Tornado Season ends. One of the biggest factors in tornado season is the fact that the jet stream interacts with warm and humid air. Wind shear (a change of wind direction and speed with height) causes thunderstorms to rotate. During the summer the jet stream lifts north. With this northward lifting of the jet stream, the conditions don't come together as often for tornadoes. Now, this doesn't mean we won't have an occasional risk of tornadoes, and it doesn't mean there aren't severe thunderstorms during summer. There are set-ups for severe thunderstorms that will continue, it is just much less likely for tornadoes.

Today's risk is a great example. Here is the Storm Prediction Center Outlook for today:

Today's Severe Outlook

There is a large area showing a level 2 out of 5 or a slight risk of severe weather. Now, look at the tornado risk:

Today's Tornado Outlook

This is a great example of the point I am making. Now, this does not mean there no chance of a tornado tomorrow, but the conditions just are not favorable for them.

We will go into a level 1 out of 5 risk tomorrow with that weak cold front sneaking into the area. Here is tomorrow's risk:

Tuesday's Severe Outlook

So, even though tornado season is over, the summer severe weather season is going to begin. Again, occasionally there is enough energy for the severe weather risks to include higher tornado risks. Most of these increased risks days are predictable using the LRC.

We will discuss the rain chances and severe weather risks on KSHB-41 later today and tonight. I am back in the swing of things, even though I am hobbling around a bit. I will see you later, or rather you will see me later and we will go in-depth today and tonight.

Rainfall Forecast: Next 15-Days

Rainfall Next 15-Days

If this map above is close to accurate, then we will have 1 to 3 inches of rain in the next two weeks! There are some stronger cold fronts showing up beginning this weekend. We will discuss on our weather forecasts later.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.

Have a great last day of spring, on this Juneteenth Holiday! Juneteenth is the newest Federal Holiday!