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Weather Blog: Temperatures and Thunderstorm Chances Increase

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Posted at 2:19 PM, May 12, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-12 15:19:36-04

Good Tuesday bloggers,

We are having one last unseasonably cold day. Here is a satellite picture from around noon today. The low clouds are extensive, but there is not much rain. The main rain was across Oklahoma and Texas. We did have some mist and drizzle around. But, the temperatures are the main story. Keep in mind the average high is 70-75 in this region. The clouds were making it a struggle to get in the 50s. Also, last night southern Kansas received 1" to 2" of rain while there was nothing north of I-70 to 0.10" south of I-70 in Kansas City. Officially, we are about 0.30" below average rainfall for the month. May and June average 5.23" making them the wettest months on average. We do have increased chances of thunderstorms as warm and more humid air moves in. Let's go through this.

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WEDNESDAY MORNING: Tonight will be cloudy and cool with some drizzle with lows 45-50. The warm front to the south and west will be heading this way as a weak disturbance moves in from the Rockies. So, our first chance of thunderstorms occurs around noon tomorrow. This looks like a small cluster and may contain some hail. The cluster could end up just about anywhere, but this model has it near KC. Temperatures will be in the 50s.

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WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: The warm front will surge by and temperatures will jump to the upper 60s and low 70s. Some sun will be possible as well as our small area of thunderstorms races into Illinois. The best chance for severe weather will be across western sections of Oklahoma and Texas, possibly to far southern Kansas. This is due to the dry line and a weak disturbance tracking out of New Mexico. The warm front will be mostly inactive during the afternoon.

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WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING: The severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma will move east and weaken. Our attention turns to the warm front that will be in northern Missouri. Thunderstorms are looking more likely to form along and north of the warm front and these could be severe weather with some containing large hail and possibly damaging winds. This is our second chance of thunderstorms. Now, the exact location of the thunderstorms will depend on where the warm front sets up. Right now it looks like northern Missouri has the best chance. The thunderstorms will form after 10 PM.

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You can see by 7 AM Thursday there are quite a bit of thunderstorms from Iowa, northern Missouri to Ohio. We will likely be dry with lows in the 60s unless the thunderstorms form farther south.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: This is our third chance of thunderstorms and our best chance of severe weather for the week. Hail and damaging winds are the main threats. As we see it now, there are two scenarios on how this may evolve. The first is the cold front sags in as we see highs 75-80. Then, after 4-5 PM new thunderstorms form on the front before heading south. The front location in this scenario will be crucial to where the thunderstorms form.

The second scenario is one in which the morning thunderstorms last all morning across northern Missouri and they force an outflow boundary south by early afternoon. This could mean bigger thunderstorms sooner, making the front much less important.

The chance of thunderstorms is no slam dunk as the front could end up in southern Missouri by the time thunderstorms form or we stay cloudy all day and we warm to the low 70s. This would not be warm enough to generate much activity.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY: I only show this to illustrate the wide range of rainfall totals due to thunderstorm placement. The location of the heavier and lighter amounts is up in the air at this time.

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The fourth thunderstorm chance is for later Friday into Saturday as the cold front from Thursday returns north as a warm front along with disturbances tracking out of the Rockies. The reason why there is no guarantee that your yard or farm will receive rain the next 4-5 days is that the features to cause the thunderstorms are relatively weak. If you get a thunderstorm, you will not think the features are weak. We will have to take this one day at a time as each day has its own unique set up.

Sunday through Thursday of next week are looking mostly dry, very warm and humid as a ridge forms over the middle of the USA. So, hopefully your yard or farm receives rain by Saturday, with no severe weather.

Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.