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Weather Blog - Temperatures Will Dip Into The 30s Tonight & Timing Out Rain Saturday

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Posted at 8:24 AM, Oct 01, 2020
and last updated 2020-10-01 09:31:11-04

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is beginning to go through a massive change. The new LRC is evolving and will begin in the next week This weekend storm is literally the finale of last years pattern and there is a good chance of rain early Saturday. The rest of the weekend is looking dry and this includes great weather for the game at Arrowhead Sunday afternoon.

High pressure is settling over us tonight, and with light winds & clear skies we can expect temperatures to drop into the upper 30s in many areas. Some lower lying areas near rivers and lakes may dip to as low as 34 or 35 degrees in the morning. There may be a bit of frost in a few of these locations. Did you know that it has to be 32 degrees or lower for frost to form? If that is the case, then why would the lowest temperature be 34 or 35 if there is frost? The actual air temperature is taken 5 feet above the ground. So, right on the grass blades it is often three to five degrees colder than the air temperature we report. This is how it can be 37 degrees outside in the temperature we tell you, and yet it is actually 32 degrees on those grass blades. Here are the forecast lows tonight:

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In Kansas City the temperatures will likely range from 35 to 41 degrees early Friday morning. And, then we will look for our chance of rain on Saturday morning:

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This next forecast map, above, shows the wind returning to the south with a disturbance over the northern plains heading our way. It will be a gorgeous Friday afternoon. By Saturday morning, this forecast map below shows the bands of rain moving across early Saturday at 4 AM:

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This rain is likely going to zip by fairly fast as a storm intensifies as it tracks overhead and shifts east of KC. On this third forecast map below, you can see that by noon Saturday the storm is already on the Mississippi River, and our chance of rain is down to near zero. It will be cloudy and cool with gradual clearing during the afternoon on Saturday.

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The overall pattern is going through big changes. Look at the 500 mb flow, around 18,000 feet up above us, in the next week:

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The jet stream is forecast to get stronger in the next two weeks as we move deeper into fall. As this happens, the conditions are becoming favorable for a big warm up. Here is the forecast upper level flow for later next week:

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That squiggly, line I drew in, shows a ridge in the middle of the nation next week. This will easily allow us to warm up into the 80s one more time. The jet stream is strengthening over Canada and over the Pacific Ocean. It has snowed the last two Octobers, so let's see how this all changes in the next few weeks. Watch 41 Action News tonight and we will go over the stats for September, and what to expect in October.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great Thursday!

Gary