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Weather Blog: The Active Weather Pattern Begins

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Posted at 6:16 AM, Jun 19, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-19 07:17:15-04

Good Friday bloggers,

The active weather pattern has begun and this is what the satellite picture looked like when the first rain in a week, or more in some locations moved into our region.

Take a look at the huge area of enhanced clouds from southern Kansas to Wisconsin. This is along a front that is about to stall and waver around all weekend as systems track in from the Rockies. Let's go through the Father's day weekend.

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FRIDAY: There will be periods of rain and thunderstorms today as a series of disturbances tracks east-northeast out of the Rockies. Highs will be 75-85.

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SATURDAY MORNING: The periods of rain and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday morning. Lows will be in the 60s. You can see all the different clusters of rain and thunderstorms associated with each disturbance.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON: The last of the series of disturbances will move through along with a cold front. So, the chance of rain will drop during the afternoon with highs 80-85.

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FATHER'S DAY: Right now it looks dry and cooler Sunday morning with lows 55-65. It still looks dry for Father's day with highs in the 80s. It will become breezy and quite humid as the front from Saturday surges back north as a warm front.This is a map for 5 PM and you can see a curl in Nebraska. This is a new disturbance that will be tracking southeast.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: The curl in Nebraska will help to generate a large area of thunderstorms as it heads southeast and interacts with the warmth and humidity. This data has the heaviest over southern Kansas. The chance of severe weather is low with most of the thunderstorm chances through the weekend. This round on Sunday night, however, has the best chance to bring our area some severe weather. Damaging winds would be the main threat.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS: If you do not receive the rain you need today, Saturday or Sunday there will be 2-4 more chances next week. So, the total rainfall potential the next 7 days is in the 2" to 5" category. A few locations could even exceed 5". We will have to take these chances one day at a time. Each day has its own unique set up partially influenced by what occurred the day before.

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Have a great Father's day weekend. Stay healthy.