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Weather Blog: The Set Up is There for Widespread Rain, But...

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Posted at 10:51 AM, Jun 26, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-26 11:51:12-04

Good Friday bloggers,

We are still sitting at the 3rd driest June ever with an official total of 0.96". There are nearly 5 full days left in the month and the set up is there for widespread beneficial rain this weekend. We will have an east-west front wavering around as disturbances track east along the front from the Rockies. This is a set up for rounds of thunderstorms in the same general locations and we are in this zone. Now, that being said, we are not sitting at the 3rd driest June with 5 days left for no reason. Every time we have been in a potentially wet set up the last several weeks something has occurred to bring us the least amount of rain or almost no rain.

There is a lot of potential for decent rain this weekend, but some data suggests something will go wrong again.

Let's go through this.

FRIDAY: There is a large slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms from Colorado to the Great Lakes. A level 3 of 5 exists from eastern Iowa to Michigan. We will see thunderstorms form in this zone later today on a front.

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FRIDAY 5 PM: Here is a forecast map for 5 PM today. You can see some bigger thunderstorms forming on the cold front from central Kansas to northwest Missouri. Some of these may be severe with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. KC will be windy, hot and humid with highs around 90.

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FRIDAY 5-10 PM: Where are the thunderstorms? This data has them sagging south and falling apart. This would be rather unusual for that to happen during peak evening thunderstorm time. This will be an interesting test to see if we can break the trend. But, this is what has been happening.

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SATURDAY MORNING: The front is stalled as a wave comes out of the Rockies. There are showers and thunderstorms around, but this model depicts low coverage. There are other models that have high coverage. Normally, we would lean with this being wrong as the setup is there for high coverage. But, this has been happening and this is why we are at the 3rd driest June. We will watch this as this will be another chance to break the trend. Our lows will be in the 60s to low 70s, rain or not.

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SATURDAY AFTERNOON: The front is still here as yet another wave is moving by. This is showing another round of scattered thunderstorms. This is a 3rd test to see if we can break the trend. Highs will be in the 80s with high humidity, so there is plenty of fuel for widespread rain and thunderstorms. Some may be severe.

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SUNDAY MORNING: The front is starting to head north as a warm front. This is the 4th chance to break the trend, but this data is showing more scattered activity.

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SUNDAY AFTERNOON: If chances 1 through 4 don't come through, then we may be out of luck. Sunday afternoon and evening will see the front lift north, dropping the rain chances. Highs will be around 90.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Eek! This is not much considering all the chances and the set up. Note, this is the most pessimistic solution. It is a possibility due to the fact this has been the case for weeks. But, the set up is there on all the models. Sometimes "real meteorology" is better than the "projected meteorology", sometimes.

The bottom line is that the set up is there for a widespread 1" to 3" rain event. There is data out there, shown here, that continues the trend of receiving the lowest amounts in our area. The good news is that we have the set up with a stalled front and a series of disturbances running along the front for about 36 hours. "It's never over until its over" and it will be interesting to see if we can break the low rainfall trend.

If we miss this weekend there are other rain chances next week, but those are more scattered set ups.

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Have a great weekend and stay healthy.