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Weather Blog - The Weather Calms Down With Lots Of Clouds

A Wet Ten Days
Posted at 7:18 AM, Jan 07, 2021
and last updated 2021-01-07 08:45:54-05

Good morning bloggers,

We have had a wet 10 day stretch with three storm systems. Colder air is now settling in and it will be difficult to clear these clouds out for the next five days.

The Plaza Lights will be on through Saturday night and then they go off for the season on Sunday. Here is a picture from last night showing the results from the three storm systems:

A Wet Ten Days

Rainfall amounts ending at midnight last night:

Rainfall Amounts

The developing weather pattern:

An article was published by The Washington Post by the Capital Weather Gang on January 5, 2021, "The polar vortex is splitting in two, which may lead to weeks of wild winter weather". The discussion of sudden Stratospheric warming leading to a negative Arctic Oscillation and brutally cold air is flawed at best. Having a good understanding of the cycling weather pattern, the LRC, allows us to know when the Arctic air is most likely going to blast south. As they describe in the article, this sudden warming in the Stratosphere may lead to the Arctic Oscillation dipping negative and Arctic air to blast south into the USA. Well, this hasn't happened yet and it isn't going to happen until perhaps later this month around the 20th or later.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO):

Arctic Oscillation

The AO drifted into positive territory in late October and November, and then dipped negative in December and has now lived in that territory for over a month now. The positive AO may be indicative of the warmer November and December, and now we wait for our first Arctic blast. There isn't one showing up yet. The LRC supports a chance of one later this month and it will not be because of any sudden Stratospheric warming, as I see it. We will be monitoring this closely, but the same pattern continues to cycle. The LRC supports a pretty good chance of a cold outbreak later in the month of January.

A Look At An Interesting Gulf Of Mexico Storm:

Surface Forecast Valid Sunday Night

Do you remember Hurricane Delta? We are in the part of the LRC that produced Delta, right at the beginning of this year's pattern. The LRC begins around that first week of October, and Delta tracked north across the Gulf of Mexico into the Louisiana/Texas border. This next storm, is producing a strong reflection of Delta three months later, and right on schedule. When this part of the pattern cycles through this summer, watch out, as there is at least a 64% chance (LRC analytics) of a named storm in this same spot.

For KC, this just shows high pressure overhead and we may have clouds trapped in here. Here is the weather Time-Line for KC:

  • Today: Cloudy & cold with temperatures in the 30s. A north breeze with wind chills in the 20s.
  • Tonight: Cloudy & cold with temperatures dropping into the 20s
  • Friday: Cloudy with a few snow flurries possible. Low: 26°, High: 29°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. Have a great day!

Gary