Good Monday bloggers,
The picture above was taken by Austin Hamilton in Norwood, Iowa which is south of Des Moines. IA. It is a feeding Oriole anxiously awaiting spring temperatures.
We had another morning with lows in the 30s, officially three degrees shy of the record low of 34. May is now about 5 degrees below average which is quite a bit. This unseasonably cold air will be exiting this week as May temperatures take over on Thursday. The average high today is 73 and rises to 75 next week. We are headed in that direction. Now, it is May in the Plains which is the peak month for severe weather. Severe weather feeds off warm and humid air. So, this colder stretch has protected us from significant severe weather. A week ago today was an exception, but on that day warm and humid air moved into southeast Kansas. We are about to trade this colder air for increased chances of severe weather. This week we do have slight severe thunderstorm chances, but we do not see a big or major set up at this time. Let's go through the forecast.
MONDAY EVENING: Clouds have overspread the region. Rain is located across central to southeast Kansas. We have seen a few sprinkles in the KC area. This main area of rain will be southwest of KC with temperatures around 50. Temperatures are in the low 40s where it is raining, 30 degrees below average!
TONIGHT: The area of rain will track east which means most of the rain will occur across southern sections of Kansas and Missouri. The north edge may reach I-70 for 1-2 hours. Some data keeps this rain 20-50 miles south of I-70, out of the KC metropolitan area. Lows will be 40-45.
TUESDAY: A low overcast will be extensive as the rain ends to the southeast. A few showers with areas of mist and drizzle will be around. Highs will be around 50, 20-25 degrees below average! Notice the large warm front from the western to southern Plains to southeast USA. This is the leading edge of average May air.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: The warm front is on the move and we may see a round of rain and thunderstorms as a disturbance heads out of the Rockies. The threat of severe weather with this round is very low as we will still be in the cold air. Temperatures will warm from the 40s to 50s and low 60s. The better chance of severe weather will be found near the warm front.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: The morning rain and thunderstorms will be moving away across southern Missouri. The warm front will be surging this way and we will see temperatures rise to the mid and upper 60s along with some sun. It looks like the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be located from southern Kansas to Oklahoma where the dry line is located along with a new disturbance emerging out of New Mexico. The warm front may be inactive as it loses its definition, meaning south winds ahead of and behind the front.
RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY: .75" to 2" of rain will be likely from southern Kansas to southern Missouri. You can see we are in the .10" to .20" category.
When you zoom in and take a closer look at the rainfall forecast, amounts range from around .05" across northern Missouri to .10" to .50" in south KC to around 1" from Emporia to Pleasanton, KS. This includes the rain tonight and Wednesday morning. You can see if one or two of the events track 20-50 miles farther south or north it will make a big difference in how much rain falls on your yard or farm. There has been a trend south.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: We will be in the warmer and more humid air with highs in the 70s and lows 55-65. Weak fronts will be wavering back and forth across the region as small disturbances track out of the Rockies. Each day will have a unique set up, so we will have to take it one day at a time. Since the features are weaker, this means the severe threats are on the lower end. Now, that being said we must watch this closely as this is May, peak of severe weather season.
Have a great week. Stay healthy.