Weather Blog: Three Systems to Track This Week

Posted at 9:04 AM, Jan 20, 2020
and last updated 2020-01-20 10:04:28-05

Good Monday bloggers,

Wow! What a Sunday. The 50 year wait is over. The weather is just as active as the Chiefs. We are tracking three storm systems this week. Let's take them one at a time.

TODAY (SYSTEM #1): This is a small system that will be racing southeast through eastern Kansas and western/central Missouri. It will affect KC between 10 AM and 1-2 PM with light to moderate snow. Most locations will see around 1/2" which is not much. A few locations could reach 1" of snow. But, since temperatures have been and will remain at 10°-15° the snow will stick from the first flake. This means roads will get slick quick.

You can see the low amounts, but again this is all it takes to get slick. Paola to Ottawa may see just a few flakes or nothing. The western edge may shift west or east by 20 miles and that can make a huge difference. The sun may come out before it sets as the system, by 3-5 PM, will be exiting southern Missouri.

TUESDAY: The day will start cold and clear with lows 0° to 10° and wind chills as low as -15° at times. Then, we will see increasing clouds with highs 28°-32°. The second system will be approaching from the southwest.

WEDNESDAY (SYSTEM #2): This will be bigger than the first system and have much more moisture to work with. It looks like snow will begin pre-dawn Wednesday with temperatures around 32. It is a slow moving system and will not exit until Wednesday night. The question is; Will it change to rain during the day or stay a wet snow? It depends on the surface temperatures. If it rises above 34° like this model suggests, we will see a change to rain. If the high on Wednesday stays below 34°, then it could stay snow all day with some accumulation. We may see an inch or two pre-dawn any way whether it changes to rain or not. If it stays snow all day but temperatures are 32°-34°, it may not accumulate much. This is a tough call.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY (SYSTEM #3): This appears to be the biggest of the three systems. It will form on Thursday and absorb the second system, so on Thursday we may still see rain and snow as the systems are combining. The same holds for Thursday as it does for Wednesday. Will we see snow all day or will it be rain? It will likely hinge on what happens Wednesday. If it changes to rain Wednesday, it will be mostly rain Thursday. Same if it stays snow Wednesday, it will likely stay snow Thursday.

Thursday night and Friday will see the third storm become more organized. If we are in rain it will change to snow as colder moves in. If it stayed snow, we will see the snow pick up. Accumulating snow is looking more likely Thursday night and Friday. It is too early to talks amounts. One thing we can almost rule out with this storm is ice. We may see some sleet, but freezing rain is unlikely.

Stay safe and have a great week.