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Weather Blog - Thunderstorms Are Possible Late Tonight

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Posted at 8:44 AM, Jul 10, 2020
and last updated 2020-07-10 09:51:50-04

Good morning bloggers,

It's Friday! The weather is looking fantastic today with light winds and no chance of rain. So, get the sunscreen out and put it on to protect your skin from the strong summer sun. There is a weather change heading towards KC, and we will notice it early on Saturday.

Let's begin the blog, however, with a tropical storm that is making landfall near the Jersey shore later today. It will bring heavy rain to the big cities today, New York City, Philadelphia, and others with up to 5" of rain possible.

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Tropical Storm Fay will make landfall in New Jersey later today. As this system moves inland and weakens on Saturday, we have our own chance of a few inches of rain and our lawns need it near Kansas City. KC is likely once again on the edge of this next chance of thunderstorms. Let's first look at what happened earlier this morning. A complex of thunderstorms formed over southern Nebraska and tracked south into Oklahoma this morning. There was a nearly 90 mph wind in North Platte, NE as these thunderstorms formed, and as you can see below the thunderstorms tracked south and missed our area once again.

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The next round of big thunderstorms will form north of KC, and then track our way early on Saturday morning:

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This computer model, shown above, has Olathe to Leavenworth, Kansas, as the southwestern edge. If you live just to the west of these thunderstorms it will be bone dry. There is a chance these will be a bit farther west, which would place KC right down the middle of a 2 to 3 inch rain event, or it could shift just a bit farther east, which would leave the city dry again.

The New Data:

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This data rolled in as I was typing. Take a look at this model run of the HRRR model. This shows a similar pattern, but with KC in the middle of the zone at 4 to 5 AM in the morning. There is a chance of severe thunderstorms on the leading edge, and this would provide a good chance of an inch of rain or more, which would be great for our lawns.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Sunny with light winds. High 90°
  • Tonight: Increasing clouds with a 90% chance of rain and thunderstorms before sunrise. There is a chance of severe thunderstorms on the leading edge of the thunderstorms. Low: 67°
  • Saturday: The thunderstorms will move out. It will be a gorgeous Saturday afternoon. High: 85°
  • Sunday: Expect sunshine and a nice day. Low: 63° High: 84° with a light northwest breeze.

Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a great Friday Night In The Big Town!

Gary